9/12/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week lower as cash trade and boxed beef markets have worked lower. Cash traded in the North from 237-239 this week, while the South waited until Friday to trade and received 240. This would all be lower than last week’s weighted averages. Packers have accumulated some inventory and are currently three to four weeks out. They also will be able to start pulling October contracts at that time and they have more contracts than a year ago. Boxed beef was lower this week as well. Choice finished the week at $400.49 which is $10.56 lower on the week while select is at $378.27 down $8.71.  For the first time since the beginning of July the Live Cattle charts broke technical support. After Tuesday’s trade the charts were beginning to look a little shaky. Up until today, the futures had held their own, trading sideways to higher, but today the top-side resistance won out. This week’s slaughter total was 561,000 head which is a big improvement from the last couple months, but fell close to 15,000 head short of this week’s expectations.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures could not take out yesterday’s highs and turned sharply lower to finish the week. The Corn market has found support as well, increasing feed costs and pushing Feeder Cattle lower. Open interest within the Feeder Cattle complex has eroded over the past few weeks and looks to be funds exiting the complex. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers of 2,739 contracts on the week, lowering their net long position to 25,636 which is 12,170 contracts below the record they set just a few months ago. Coming into this week, the market felt like it was ready for a correction. The funds had not been net buyers of the contract for nearly two months, open interest has continued to slip away and the chart picture had been violated for the first time in over two months. The Feeder Cattle futures have quickly erased nearly 25.000/cwt since August 27 and now will be searching for technical support and strong fundamentals to support the market.

Lean Hogs: The nearby contracts led the complex lower as October finished the day down 1.050 at 97.125, while the deferred months finished the day with small gains. The Lean Hog index rose $0.11 today at $106.04 and is now $8.92 higher than the October futures contract. The pork cutout was $1.68 higher this morning at $114.85, with bellies jumping $4.46. Cash hogs remain strong as demand for cash pigs continues to remain high. With packers searching for open market hogs, there could be some Saturday slaughter cancellations in the near future.  Today’s WASDE Report lowered pork production estimates by 180 million pounds due to the slower slaughter rates we’ve been seeing. The last few weeks’ slaughter has been 2-3% less than a year ago. The Hogs and Pigs Report will be out on September 25 and the industry will get a better prediction on inventory levels moving forward.

Corn: The USDA released their monthly WASDE Report this morning and added bushels to total production compared to last month. The U.S. corn yield is now estimated at 186.7 bushels per acre, which was down over 2 bushels per acre from the August report, but well above the average trade guess for this report. Harvested acres were also increased to 90.000 million acres, the highest since 1933. Total production was increased 72 million bushels compared to a month ago. On the demand side of the equation, the USDA increased total use by 100 million bushels. Exports for the 2025/2026 marketing year were increased by 100 million bushels to a record 3.0 billion bushels. Higher supplies in the U.S. along with cheaper prices has made the U.S. competitive in the world market and exports are running well ahead of pace. December Corn traded above the 425 resistance area this morning ahead of the report, but slid lower immediately after the report was released. As the day moved on, Corn recovered those losses and finished back above 425. The next area of resistance is the 430 1/4 area and then the gap at 432 3/4.