9/23/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished Tuesday mixed, as the nearby months all traded lower due to the uncertainty of cash trading higher this week. The deferred contracts finished slightly higher as they continue to price in tight cattle numbers into next year. The Live Cattle complex followed along with the Feeder Cattle futures on Monday even with the softer fundamentals. Boxed beef was mixed Tuesday morning with choice $2.06 higher at $383.45, while select was $0.74 lower at $361.35. Monday’s boxed beef values were nearly the opposite as choice was slightly lower and select was up over $2. This is coming off of last week, where choice boxes declined nearly $18 over the course of the week. The cash market has been quiet up to this point in the week. The feedlots are hopeful that this week brings a higher cash market after the futures traded sharply higher on Monday. The packers did not buy many cattle last week, but the weekly kill numbers have been lighter than expected as well. We are nearing the beginning of October and there are a lot of cattle contracted for slaughter, reducing the needs of packers to buy cattle every week.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures saw big gains to start this week and followed with slight gains Tuesday. Over the weekend, it was reported that there was a confirmed case of Screwworm only 70 miles from the U.S. border. This news hampered any thoughts that the U.S. and Mexico were nearing a reopening time line of the border. The deferred Feeder Cattle futures were locked up the limit by the middle of the trading session and most months never traded off of that level. The spreads within the futures contracts had continued to hold a premium in the nearby contracts due to the potential of the border opening and more supplies being available to U.S. feedlots in the future, particularly into 2026. The deferred contracts have gained substantially on the front months the last two days as that supply does not look to be coming for the United States. Also, in the news Monday, was a very vague plan that the government would incentivize cow-calf producers to retain heifers and begin to rebuild the U.S. cow herd. More details will be released in the future, but this would limit the number of heifers available for the feedlots to purchase and further down the road, cattle available for slaughter.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded to new contract highs across all months on Tuesday. Cash hogs posted a $3.00 gain Monday afternoon and an additional gain of $1.58 on Tuesday morning’s report, putting the national average at $106.10. It appears the packers are willing to continue paying up for cash hogs to fill their Saturday harvest schedules. The pork cutout also had a positive day Monday, and showed an additional $0.75 gain on this morning’s report keeping it above the $114 mark. With the stronger past two days in the October futures contract, we’ve seen the premium of the Lean Hog index erode to less than $5.00. Mexico’s demand for pork products continues to remain solid, which is partially supported by the firm peso and weaker dollar. Thursday, the USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report and give insight to total hog numbers moving forward.

Corn: Corn futures finished Tuesday higher after testing downside support each of the last two sessions. We have entered the time of the year where news within the grain markets becomes very limited and causes a very stagnant market. There was a flash sale to Mexico Tuesday morning of 123,000 tonnes. Mexico has been on the export sale report multiple times over the past week and has become an important destination for U.S. corn. Corn harvest has become more widespread across the U.S. in the past week or so, and the majority of yield reports are being described as disappointing compared to expectations. We are more than two weeks away from the next WASDE Report, but the focus of that report will be a change to yield, and in turn, total production for the crop.