Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded sharply lower early in the day before following the Feeder Cattle complex higher. Cash is yet to be determined this week but it feels like another week of lower trade is shaping up. There was light trade at 360 dressed in Iowa on Monday which would be $5 lower than last week’s state average. Boxed beef was lower this morning with choice being quoted $0.05 lower to $370.63 while select was $2.06 lower at $346.83. Choice is now $12.82 lower than last Tuesday while select is off $14.82. Unlike the Feeder Cattle complex, the Live Cattle futures have struggled to trade back through the 20-day MA. The deferred contracts pushed through this level near the end of trading today, but the nearby months have found resistance in that area. The cash market trading steady to lower is also preventing the nearby contracts from moving higher.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the month sharply higher as feed costs continue to decrease and the CME Feeder Cattle index moves higher. The Feeder Cattle index released on Monday was at $367.61 following Friday’s sales, which is a new all-time record high. The October contract will expire a month from today and is currently at a discount to the cash index. The futures finished last week back above the 20-day MA and that has also offered technical support to start this week. Last Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money as sellers of 1,564 contracts, reducing their long position to 24,327 contracts, more than 13,000 contracts off of their record set earlier this summer. It has been interesting to watch the futures remain supported as the funds continue to liquidate their long position, while open interest decreases. Open interest within the Feeder Cattle complex peaked just short of 100,000 contracts at the beginning of July and has been on a decline since that time. This morning’s open interest was 79,266, but nearly 30,000 more than the same time a year ago.
Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex began the week with small losses and those losses continued into Tuesday’s trade. October finished the day 1.300 lower at 99.850 and December closed the day down 1.625 at 88.725. The Lean Hog index has been lower each of the past two days and is now at $104.78, which is the lowest it has been since June 17. The midday cash hog report showed a significant number of cash hogs negotiated, with 8,505 head that averaged $102.33. The large number of negotiated hogs reflects the packers continued need for inventory on their Saturday slaughter. While the cutout remains seasonally high at just over $112.00, packers will continue to push six day harvests as long as hog inventories and labor needs remain sufficient.
Corn: Corn futures traded to their monthly lows today ahead of the end of the month and end of the quarter. December futures finished below the 20-day MA on Friday and have not been able to push back above that level the first two days this week. The USDA released their Quarterly Grain Stocks Report this morning and revised 2024 Corn production higher. This is now the third year in a row that the USDA has gone back to the previous growing season and added production to the balance sheet. The 2024 corn yield was left unchanged but harvested area was increased 315,000 acres which resulted in an increase of 25 million bushels of total production. The increase in production added supply of corn and increased the carryout on the balance sheet moving into this year.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Dec
415.50
6.00
CHI Wheat
Dec
508.00
11.50
KC Wheat
Dec
497.75
7.75
Soybeans
Nov
1001.75
8.75
Soy Oil
Dec
49.49
0.20
Soy Meal
Dec
273.30
2.10
Live Cattle
Oct
231.850
0.525
Feeder Cattle
Oct
361.025
4.825
Lean Hogs
Oct
99.850
1.300
Crude Oil
Nov
62.52
0.93
Ch Cutout
370.63
0.05
Sel Cutout
346.83
2.06
Feeder Index
365.33
2.28
Pork Cutout
112.22
1.30
Dollar Index
97.789
0.1170
DOW
46,308
8
National Corn Basis
-42.07
0.35
National Bean Basis
-80.98
0.09
Dates to Remember
September 30- Quarterly Grain Stocks
October 3- October Live Cattle Option Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
99.850
100.525
0.675
82.250
17.600
National Cash
102.44
106.83
4.39
76.68
25.76
Index
104.78
104.98
0.20
84.13
20.65
Cutout
112.22
112.05
0.17
95.84
16.38
IA/SMN Cash
102.06
106.94
4.88
78.18
23.88
IA/SMN Weights
287.00
286.60
0.40
283.40
3.60
Slaughter
2,537,000
2,588,000
51,000
2,555,081
18,081
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
232.59
187.00
South Cash
235.63
185.97
North Steer Basis
0.00
-0.43
Choice Boxes
370.63
383.45
12.82
298.08
72.55
Select Boxes
346.83
361.65
14.82
284.53
62.30
Spread
23.80
22.10
1.70
13.55
10.25
Carcass Weights
878
878
0
863
15
Slaughter
555,000
552,000
3,000
616,922
61,922
FC Index
365.33
361.10
4.23
247.24
118.09
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$235.75
$186.00
KS
$235.63
$185.97
NE
$232.59
$187.00
IA/MN
$232.14
$187.32
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 9/23/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
124,903
2,844
-161,328
548
378,272
2,948
Feeder Cattle
24,327
1,564
-12,803
82
79,226
1,685
Lean Hogs
142,444
186
-201,313
8,394
378,181
988
Corn
-94,675
14,624
-97,598
10,692
1,538,236
1,724
Soybeans
-29,302
31,589
-92,440
27,234
938,782
2,786
Live Cattle Markets
December Live Cattle have found resistance at the 20-day MA both days this week. The 20-day MA of 235.525 is the first resistance level followed by 236.500. Support is at the 50-day MA of 232.950 and then 231.750
Feeder Cattle Markets
October Feeder Cattle finished the day sharply higher. Support is at the 20-day MA of 355.550 and then 351.100. Resistance is at 364.750.
Lean Hogs Markets
December Lean Hogs have failed to post a new contract high this week. Resistance is at the contract high of 91.525. Support is at the 20-day MA of 88.550 and then 87.875.
Corn Markets
December Corn matched its monthly low of 414 this morning. Support is at 414 and then 403 1/2. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 422 1/2 and then 428 1/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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9/30/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded sharply lower early in the day before following the Feeder Cattle complex higher. Cash is yet to be determined this week but it feels like another week of lower trade is shaping up. There was light trade at 360 dressed in Iowa on Monday which would be $5 lower than last week’s state average. Boxed beef was lower this morning with choice being quoted $0.05 lower to $370.63 while select was $2.06 lower at $346.83. Choice is now $12.82 lower than last Tuesday while select is off $14.82. Unlike the Feeder Cattle complex, the Live Cattle futures have struggled to trade back through the 20-day MA. The deferred contracts pushed through this level near the end of trading today, but the nearby months have found resistance in that area. The cash market trading steady to lower is also preventing the nearby contracts from moving higher.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the month sharply higher as feed costs continue to decrease and the CME Feeder Cattle index moves higher. The Feeder Cattle index released on Monday was at $367.61 following Friday’s sales, which is a new all-time record high. The October contract will expire a month from today and is currently at a discount to the cash index. The futures finished last week back above the 20-day MA and that has also offered technical support to start this week. Last Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money as sellers of 1,564 contracts, reducing their long position to 24,327 contracts, more than 13,000 contracts off of their record set earlier this summer. It has been interesting to watch the futures remain supported as the funds continue to liquidate their long position, while open interest decreases. Open interest within the Feeder Cattle complex peaked just short of 100,000 contracts at the beginning of July and has been on a decline since that time. This morning’s open interest was 79,266, but nearly 30,000 more than the same time a year ago.
Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex began the week with small losses and those losses continued into Tuesday’s trade. October finished the day 1.300 lower at 99.850 and December closed the day down 1.625 at 88.725. The Lean Hog index has been lower each of the past two days and is now at $104.78, which is the lowest it has been since June 17. The midday cash hog report showed a significant number of cash hogs negotiated, with 8,505 head that averaged $102.33. The large number of negotiated hogs reflects the packers continued need for inventory on their Saturday slaughter. While the cutout remains seasonally high at just over $112.00, packers will continue to push six day harvests as long as hog inventories and labor needs remain sufficient.
Corn: Corn futures traded to their monthly lows today ahead of the end of the month and end of the quarter. December futures finished below the 20-day MA on Friday and have not been able to push back above that level the first two days this week. The USDA released their Quarterly Grain Stocks Report this morning and revised 2024 Corn production higher. This is now the third year in a row that the USDA has gone back to the previous growing season and added production to the balance sheet. The 2024 corn yield was left unchanged but harvested area was increased 315,000 acres which resulted in an increase of 25 million bushels of total production. The increase in production added supply of corn and increased the carryout on the balance sheet moving into this year.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
September 30- Quarterly Grain Stocks
October 3- October Live Cattle Option Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 9/23/2025
Live Cattle Markets
December Live Cattle have found resistance at the 20-day MA both days this week. The 20-day MA of 235.525 is the first resistance level followed by 236.500. Support is at the 50-day MA of 232.950 and then 231.750
Feeder Cattle Markets
October Feeder Cattle finished the day sharply higher. Support is at the 20-day MA of 355.550 and then 351.100. Resistance is at 364.750.
Lean Hogs Markets
December Lean Hogs have failed to post a new contract high this week. Resistance is at the contract high of 91.525. Support is at the 20-day MA of 88.550 and then 87.875.
Corn Markets
December Corn matched its monthly low of 414 this morning. Support is at 414 and then 403 1/2. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 422 1/2 and then 428 1/4.