9/9/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: October Live Cattle have finished lower six days in a row and took out long lasting support lines today. The 20-day MA has been holding as bottom side support since the beginning of July, and today’s sharply lower finish pushed the futures below support. Today’s lower move felt like a reaction to President Trump’s comments promising that “Beef will go down” as ground beef has topped $6.00 per pound. According to July’s inflation data, ground beef has increased nearly 13% since the beginning of 2025 and the start of President Trump’s current term. These comments feel like a bit of political speak to increase confidence that inflation will ease. This morning choice was $0.10 lower at $409.59 while select was $2.99 higher at $388.33. The cash market has started this week lower as there continues to be plenty of market-ready cattle placed on showlists. There have been cattle traded from $375 to 378 on a dressed basis in Nebraska today, which would be $5 to 8 lower than the average a week ago. Many packers have three to four weeks of inventory on hand, and are heading into October with plenty of contract cattle at their disposal.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished limit lower all the way through the complex today after breaking technical support this morning. Over the course of the last week and a half, the futures market has failed to post new highs and has set new daily lows in all but one session. Open interest has also slowly worked lower as many traders have begun to lose confidence that the futures market could work much higher than levels seen two weeks ago. Cash feeder cattle continue to sell at all-time record highs. The CME Feeder Cattle index is currently at $365.86 which is $1.17 lower and just off the all-time high of $367.03 set at the end of last week. The Feeder Cattle index will trail behind futures action by a few days as sales data is complied and reported. September futures will expire on September 25 and are currently trading at a $14.16 discount to the CME Feeder Cattle index.

Lean Hogs: The deferred Lean Hog futures traded to minimal losses on the day, while the nearby October contract closed 0.975 higher. The Lean Hog index has only moved $0.05 in the last five days, which proves the cash and cutout markets are remaining strong. The pork cutout was quoted at $116.38 Monday afternoon and is currently at the highest level since August 18. The high beef prices continue to support demand for pork products. Pork exports for July were down 3% compared to last July, with exports now down 2% year-to-date compared to a year ago. The Asian destinations remain slow for exports, while Mexico now accounts for 40% of all our pork product exports.

Corn: Corn futures finished slightly lower today as traders look toward the WASDE Report that will be released this Friday. The average trade guess for corn yield is 186.2 bushels per acre which would be down 2.6 bushels per acre compared to the August report. Harvested acres for the U.S. does not look to change much, but if all estimates are in line with what the USDA releases, production would be roughly 225 million bushel less than the August estimate. The USDA crop progress report was released yesterday afternoon and the U.S. Corn condition was lowered 1% compared to a week ago, but remains 4% better than a year ago. December futures have failed to trade through the 425 area the past few weeks and will run into stiff resistance in the 430 area where the 100-day MA and the July high meet.