10/24/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week limit lower with the exception of the October contract. The October contract finished at 233.750, down 5.975 as it needs to stay in line with the current cash market. Cash cattle traded at 239 to 240 in the North as the feedlots enjoyed basis improvement this week. The South traded at mostly 237 to 238 on Friday, also lowering their cash expectations for the week after being able to capture a positive basis. This week has been filled with news headlines surrounding the price of beef for the consumer. President Trump has stated that he is working to lower beef prices and actually took credit for the high cattle market while encouraging the cattle industry to think about the cost of their products to the American consumer. The original thoughts were that the U.S. would begin importing more beef from Argentina, but that plan would not put much of a dent into replenishing the beef inventory. Now, the leaders of Brazil are asking for a meeting with President Trump next week to discuss the current tariffs that are imposed on the country. Next week will be a big week to see if all of these headlines and speculation end with an actual meeting or any hard plans for the future. Boxed beef continued to work higher this week. Choice was quoted $2.76 higher this morning at $375.90 and select was $2.87 higher at $357.61. Retailers continue to buy for the holiday season and that has supported boxed beef the past few weeks. This weeks estimated slaughter is 573,000, up 6,000 head from a week ago and the highest weekly total since the beginning of June. Today’s scheduled Cattle on Feed Report was not released due to the government shutdown. Estimates for this report were cattle on feed to be 99.2% of a year ago, placements down 8.7% and marketing 12.9% lower than September 2024.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures were locked down the limit within the first ten minutes this morning and never traded away from that level. Uncertainty surrounding the cattle and beef markets, along with ongoing headlines continually hitting the news, has added an extreme amount of volatility to the cattle markets. The latest news is that the President of Mexico is headed to Washington, DC next week to discuss the potential reopening of the Mexican border for Feeder Cattle imports into the United States. The press release stated that the President was “hopeful to return to Mexico with an agreement on the border opening.” The Mexican border has been closed to Feeder Cattle imports since July 10 after a brief two-day opening. If it were up to Mexico, the border would have never been closed, so the fact that Mexico is requesting a meeting with the President to discuss the reopening is a long cry from the border being open and cattle actually being imported. But with the managed money long the Feeder Cattle complex, any sort of negative news or potential news leads to long liquidation in a big way. All of the market movement the past two weeks has been primarily money flow by the managed money. The fundamentals followed suit and followed the board action higher. Now that the managed money wishes to exit those positions, it has left the fundamentals much higher than the market with no one willing to buy at these levels.

Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex finished steady today with December finishing the week at 81.900, a net loss of 0.475. Currently, the December contract is $11.37 under the Lean Hog index. Cash hogs are now trading in the mid-$80 range as the market continues to see the seasonal decline that is typical in the fourth quarter of the year as more supply becomes available to the packers. Hog weights also remain record heavy as the national average is up 1.2% from a year ago. The pork cutout fell below the $100 mark on both the Wednesday and Thursday afternoon reports. This morning’s report showed the cutout up $2.95 to $102.66 with bellies gaining $10.42. With high-priced beef and poultry, combined with strong exports for pork, the cutout may have support from falling too far. Taiwan did announce they discovered their first case of ASF on Tuesday. After inspection of approximately 80% of the hog farms, the inspection yielded no new cases of ASF. They will continue to ban slaughter and movement of all hogs till November 6 as the incubation period for ASF is 15 days. Taiwan will continue to test farms for new cases in the meantime. While the transport and slaughter of hogs is banned, they will look at releasing pork from freezer stocks to help in the disruption of supply.

Corn: Corn futures could not hold their weekly gains heading into the weekend and finished the day nearly 5 cents off of the high for the week. The December contract gained nearly 20 cents in eight days and moved through overhead resistance levels in the process. News surrounding the Corn market, and grain markets as a whole, continues to be limited as the government shutdown persists. Without the latest WASDE report, the industry has not seen an updated corn yield estimate or carryout number. The feeling of the market is that the Corn market is pricing in a much lower national yield average than what was last reported. The focal point the last few days has become the anticipated meeting between President Trump and China next week. This meeting is scheduled for October 30 while attending the APEC summit in South Korea. All eyes will be on this meeting to see if there is any progress between the two countries in terms of trade and removal of tariffs.