3/20/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded up to the 20-day MA and overhead resistance all week but ultimately finished the week higher. Cash trade has been limited ahead of today’s Cattle on Feed Report but there has been some trade in the North at 235 live and 372 dressed while the South have traded at 237. This week’s estimated slaughter was 508,000 head which is down from the week prior and well below expectations. The thought of the industry was that packers would push the kill this week and in coming weeks with the increase in boxed beef prices helping their margins. Both choice and select boxed beef were higher this week. Choice was quoted at $400.42 this morning which is up $3.17 on the week. Select is up $1.92 since last Friday at $392.78. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed cattle on feed down 2% compared to a year ago and 1% less than expected. Marketings were down 7% compared to February of 2025 which was slightly better than expectations.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded in volatile fashion again this week. Thursday, the futures traded sharply lower but rebounded and recovered a portion of those gains on Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted higher today and was $1.37 higher at $362.06. The CME Feeder Cattle index has recovered over $5.00 since the end of last week. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed placements up 4% compared to February 2025. Texas placements were up 8% compared to last year but the total was only 280,000 head. Feeder Cattle futures continue to monitor the Corn market, and the cattle complex as a whole is watching the outside markets and tensions in the Middle East.

Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex saw steep losses this week as the technical picture continues to look weaker and the cash and pork cutout markets have failed to make big moves higher. The pork cutout was quoted $0.72 lower at $98.10 and has now spent three consecutive days below the $100 level after spending three consecutive days above that mark. Export business to Mexico has been light the past two weeks, although Mexico remains the number one customer for U.S. pork. The USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report next Thursday and the industry will be looking for tighter supplies into the summer months and beyond. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers of 11,151 contracts as of Tuesday, reducing their net long position to 116,553 contracts.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week lower after a three day recovery in the middle of the week that added 20 cents from the weekly low set on Tuesday. Most of the contracts found support at the 20-day MA and are now back to recent highs with the exception of the spike high last Sunday night. Crude oil prices continue to be supported and the May contract remains just under $100 which has helped support the Corn market and keep buyers in the complex. Outside fundamental factors have not changed recently and traders are now looking toward the Prospective Planting Report at the end of the month. Many independent weather firms are giving their opinion on the U.S. weather this summer through the growing season. There haven’t been any models that are extremely bullish or bearish for the grain markets, but more are leaning for a warmer summer than normal.