6/30/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have finished lower three days in a row and fell below technical support levels today. End of the month and end of the quarter selling the past few days came after cash trade was a bit disappointing last week. There were cattle in the North that traded at 260 but most packers had backed their bids up to 258 by the end of the day Friday and trade in the South took place at 258. Although these prices are near all-times highs, they were less than the expectations of 262 to 265 for the week. Boxed beef was quoted higher this morning with choice up $3.54 to $394.98 and select $1.17 higher at $375.35. Choice boxes peaked at just over $400 last week but fell sharply to end the week. The Trump administration announced today they plan to release $500 million in payments to help keep small and midsized beef packers slaughtering. The news hit the market and there was a quick two minute spike within the cattle complex but could not push prices higher throughout the day. There has been no cash trade up to this point of the week but packers have thrown out bids of substantially lower money with the futures trading lower and the August contract now being the lead month.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded down to support lines this morning and held at those levels going into the end of the day. Feeder Cattle also traded lower to start the week despite the Corn market trading sharply lower. The CME Feeder Cattle index remains at record levels despite being quoted lower each of the past two days. Today, the index was quoted at $377.40 down $2.99 on the day through Monday’s sales. Cheap cost of gains have helped keep cash prices elevated especially for lighter cattle. Open interest continues to climb slowly within the complex and was nearing 65,000 contracts before today’s trade and is now at the highest levels since the beginning of May. The Feeder Cattle futures will continue to keep a close eye on the Feeder Cattle index along with Corn prices going forward. Sales this week will be limited due to the July 4 holiday but there will be plenty of featured sales and barbecue sales in the coming weeks.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs finished the day mixed throughout the complex today. The August contract closed $0.925 higher while December was $0.325 lower, both $1.000 off their highs on the day. We have seen two consecutive closes above the 20-day MA for the first time since May which is a bullish technical signal for the market. The August contract has tested the 20-day MA many times since the middle of May but found resistance at that line. Chart resistance in the August contract is between $99.25 and $100.75 while support areas are $96.75 and $94.00. The Lean Hog index is currently at $91.41, down $0.23 from the previous week. In the short term, larger supplies caused by higher weights and year-over-year similar harvesting rates, have put pressure on both the futures and cash prices. Long term, demand continues to be the question mark of the pork complex. The cutout price is trading nearly $25 below last year’s price. Traders continue to watch for higher retail and wholesale prices to confirm a change in direction to the hog complex. 

Corn: The Corn market found support from today’s Quarterly Stocks Report and Planted Acreage Report. Total stocks were increased from the WASDE Report at the beginning of the month but below the average trade estimates ahead of the report. Planted Corn acres were actually above the pre-report guess but lower than a year ago. Today’s action indicates that traders were anticipating a sharply higher acre number and even with a slightly bearish acre total, the market worked higher. The report may not have been bullish from a production standpoint, but it wasn’t overly bearish and the market pushed higher. The December contract finished the day more than six cents off its highs but recovered nearly six cents from a low set in the final hour. Crop conditions that were released yesterday afternoon showed the condition of the Corn crop dropped 1% to 67% good to excellent and is now 6% lower than a year ago. Export inspections were also released yesterday and showed another good week of corn shipments. Currently, the U.S. is 147 million bushels ahead of the pace to meet the current USDA export goal. The marketing year will end August 31.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn Sept 416.75 6.50
CHI Wheat Sept 589.25 9.50
KC Wheat Sept 625.25 10.50
Soybeans August 1124.25 5.00
Soy Oil August 66.93 1.93
Soy Meal August 303.90 0.10
Live Cattle August 242.425 1.150
Feeder Cattle August 364.600 2.875
Lean Hogs July 94.325 0.500
Crude Oil August 70.09 0.66
Ch Cutout 394.98 3.54
Sel Cutout 375.35 1.17
Feeder Index 377.40 2.99
Pork Cutout 97.66 2.29
Dollar Index 101.137 0.0320
DOW 52,319 136
National Corn Basis -25.84 0.11
National Bean Basis -43.23 2.81

Dates to Remember

June 30- Quarterly Grain Stocks & Planted Acreage

June 30- June Live Cattle Expiration

July 3- No Markets

July 10- WASDE Report

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 94.325 94.225 0.100 110.100 15.775
National Cash 93.44 97.77 4.33 111.88 18.44
Index 91.41 91.64 0.23 110.99 19.58
Cutout 98.66 96.08 2.58 115.37 16.71
IA/SMN Cash 97.35 97.35 0.00 111.85 14.50
IA/SMN Weights 286.10 287.20 1.10 285.30 0.80
Slaughter 2,371,000 2,371,000 0 2,389,368 18,368

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 259.56 231.51
South Cash 258.00 224.13
North Steer Basis 2.50 19.89
Choice Boxes 394.98 400.26 5.28 395.56 0.58
Select Boxes 375.35 382.77 7.42 381.10 5.75
Spread 19.63 17.49 2.14 11.46 8.17
Carcass Weights 890 892 2 863 27
Slaughter 537,000 526,000 11,000 561,022 24,022
FC Index 377.40 373.00 4.40 314.07 63.33

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM $258.00 $224.00
KS $258.00 $224.13
NE $259.56 $231.51
IA/MN $259.85 $231.63

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 6/23/2026
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 126,025 1,676 -172,359 1,407 321,977 3,489
Feeder Cattle 15,227 2,104 -8,715 777 64,513 300
Lean Hogs -25,560 4,601 -52,108 6,316 297,285 911
Corn -69,691 23,264 -285,394 32,617 1,744,472 56,293
Soybeans 36,679 16,139 143,660 15,797 895,782 24,205

Live Cattle Markets

August Live Cattle fell below the 20-day MA today. Support is at the 100-day MA of 239.275 and then 238.550. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 243.450 followed by 245.825.

Feeder Cattle Markets

August Feeder Cattle traded near the 20-day MA today. Support is at the 20-day MA of 361.200 and then the 100-day MA of 359.300. Resistance is at 367.900 and then 377.400.

Lean Hogs Markets

August Lean Hogs settled above the 20-day AM for the second day in a row. Resistance is at 100.000 and then 101.025. Support is at the 20-day MA of 96.850 followed by 95.425.

Corn Markets

September Corn posted a new contract low today. Support is at that low of 406 1/4 and then 400. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 425 followed by 427.

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