7/24/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures stopped their slide lower this week and the nearby August contract finished higher four days this week after finishinglower for 15 consecutive days. The futures found buying at the beginning of the week but traded to new lows for the move on Thursday, finishing the week nearly $6.000/cwt off of that low. Cash trade this week took place on Wednesday and prices ranged from 228-232 in the North on a live basis and 365 on a dressed basis. The majority of the cattle that traded in the South were priced at 230. Boxed beef was lower again this week and is now reaching levels that held the market last year at this time. For the week, choice was down $3.49 and finished at $363.32 while select was $7.18 lower at $348.11. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed cattle on feed at 102.2% of a year ago which was right on the average estimates ahead of the report. Cattle marketed in the month of June were 97.3% compared to last year and also right on the average guess. The USDA released the Cattle Inventory Report this afternoon and showed all cattle and calves up 0.2% compared to a year ago and all cows and heifers unchanged from a year ago.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures turned in another volatile week and traded to the lowest levels since December 18 in many of the deferred contracts. The October and further out contracts took out the lows from when Screwworm was discovered in the U.S. but found support under those levels and finished the week more than $7.000/cwt off of those lows. The CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $1.07 lower today at $349.65 and will show a loss of $14.38 on the week. This index price is near the low for 2026 that was set in the first days of the year. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of June down nearly 3% compared to last year and slightly below the average trade guess. The Cattle Inventory Report that was released this afternoon estimates the 2026 calf crop down 1.5%, or 496,000 head less than 2025. Beef replacement heifers are up 2.7% compared to last July indicating that heifer retention has began. The beef cow herd is down 200,000 head as well and this number will keep the calf crop suppressed for at least one more report. While nothing has come direct from the USDA yet, according to Reuters, the United States will plan to begin reopening ports for feeder cattle on the Mexican border in the next 30 days citing the Wall Street Journal and interviews with Secretary of Ag, Brooke Rollins.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures ended the week higher across the whole complex. The August contract picked up $1.200/cwt this week closing at $102.850, the highest close since the middle of May for the contract. Resistance for August is found at the 100-day MA of $102.975. The Lean Hog index moved $0.40 higher today, closing at $97.48, a $3.07 increase from last week. This is the highest priced index since November of 2025. The pork cutout also moved higher in the week, gaining $2.06 to close at $104.48 yesterday. The higher move continues to be led by the bellies price which gained about $5.00 this week. The USDA released the June Cold Storage Report this afternoon. It showed that frozen pork supplies were up 9% from last year at this time. Specifically, pork bellies were down 3% from last month but up 18% from last year. This is another indication the industry has been producing more than enough pork for the demand that is currently present. The CFTC Report showed the managed money started unwinding their massive net short position by buying 12,282 contracts as of this Tuesday, making the funds net short 18,157 contracts. The managed money will continue to have a close eye on the index and pork cutout as they decide to continue to add length within the complex

Corn: The nearby September Corn contract finished higher each day this week and traded to the highest levels since May 26. War and weather have been the drivers this week and have the entire grain complex to multi-month highs. Heat and dryness continue to be forecasted for much of the Corn belt over the next two weeks and that has built premium into the futures market in anticipation of yield cuts coming from the USDA in coming months. The war in Iran caused the crude oil market to move back above $90/barrel yesterday, the highest level in over two months and that helped support the Corn market. The war between Russia and Ukraine has help the wheat market move higher as traders fear global wheat supplies tightening up. This morning, rumors of a resolution between the two countries sent the wheat market plummeting, dragging Corn futures with. Wheat eventually recovered and the Corn complex finished the day mixed. Traders will continue to monitor weather and the extended forecasts along with any peace talks or resolutions that take place over seas over the weekend and next week.