7/31/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the day mixed and well off of the highs for the day on what appeared to be profit taking heading into the weekend. Cash trade in the North took place at a wide range this week. There were cattle that traded in the North on Monday at 228 live and 360 dressed when the futures were sharply lower but rebounded toward the end of the week. There were cattle in the North that traded as high as 235 on Thursday but the bulk of the trade was at 232 to 233 with dressed prices from 365-368. The South has yet to trade this week but there are bids of 233 with feedlots asking for more. Trade will likely take place at 234. Boxed beef started the week supported but has lost ground the last few days. This morning choice was quoted higher at $361.53, up $1.03 and select was up $5.82 to $347.15. The industry is still looking for the $360 area to hold the choice beef market as we head into a lower demand period seasonally. This week’s CFTC report showed the managed money as sellers of 8,840 contracts, reducing their net long position to 66,523 contracts. This is the smallest net long position since October of 2024. The heat that set in over the central U.S. this week has caused significant death loss across all feeding regions. There are no accurate counts on what total death loss has been, but on top of death loss cattle have lost weight and dressed weights should work lower in the coming weeks.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures posted a good recovery over the final four days of the week after trading limit lower in the deferred contracts on Monday. News of the Mexican border opening weighed on the Feeder Cattle complex at the beginning of the week but the price action toward the end of the week feels like the correction throughout the month of July was pricing in a potential border reopening. The Corn market also lost steam throughout the week and finished lower four of five days which has helped support the Feeder Cattle futures. The CME Feeder Cattle index was down $1.86 today at $345.83 and will finish the week $3.82 lower than a week ago. The Feeder Cattle index is now just $10.82 higher than year ago levels and this is the tightest spread the market has seen in almost two years. Today’s CFTC report showed the managed money as sellers of just 482 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. This decreases their net long position to 7,423 contracts.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures completed a key reversal lower this week after coming off some of the best cash prices since the fall of 2025. The nearby August futures lost $4.000/cwt on the week with all the loss coming from Wednesday’s and Thursday’s trade. The deferred contracts are back near their lows from June, while the upfronts closed about $5.000/cwt off their contract lows. Support for the August contract is now the 50-day MA of $98.700, failure at this level could show potential risk down to $94.000. The Lean Hog index closed the week at $98.44, $0.96 higher than last Friday. The negative basis between August and the index is $0.41 compared to $5.37 last week. With contract expiration two weeks away, traders may have felt the futures were overextended compared to the index. This would explain some of the hard sell-off with no obvious negative news. The pork cutout closed $2.99 lower from the previous week on Thursday. The lower move was driven by a major decrease in the Hams as they lost almost $15 week-over-week, while the rest of the primal cuts stayed steady to higher. The CFTC report showed the managed money reduced their net short position by 7,273 contracts. This report does not include the 9,000 contracts of combined open interest lost on Wednesday and Thursday.

Corn: Last week’s stories of continued war in the Middle East and a hot and dry forecast led to a late summer rally, which the market failed to uphold this week. The nearby September contract finished the week 23 1/2 cents lower, giving back all gains from the previous week and more. Forecasts of continued precipitation and upcoming cooler weather have many analyst believing that yield potential stays high across the country. Many believed without this rain across the Corn belt, we could start seeing yield losses, which was part of the reason for the rally last week. The other grain complexes were also lower this week which helped pull the Corn market lower. August soybeans lost 76 cents, September Chicago Wheat was 38 3/4 cents lower, and September Kansas City Wheat lost 37 3/4 cents. Crude oil came off its highs from last week giving back $4.65 to close at $84.65 in the September contract.  Traders will continue to watch weather forecasts and geopolitical relations until we see any updates in the USDA Crop Production report on August 12.

 

 

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn Sept 440.75 5.00
CHI Wheat Sept 639.25 24.25
KC Wheat Sept 707.50 23.25
Soybeans August 1172.00 5.25
Soy Oil August 67.12 1.23
Soy Meal Sept 314.90 2.60
Live Cattle August 231.750 0.525
Feeder Cattle August 348.025 1.550
Lean Hogs August 98.850 0.425
Crude Oil September 84.73 1.14
Ch Cutout 361.53 1.03
Sel Cutout 347.15 5.82
Feeder Index 345.83 1.86
Pork Cutout 101.64 0.14
Dollar Index 99.944 0.0800
DOW 52,485 276
National Corn Basis -29.25 0.44
National Bean Basis -34.12 1.18

Dates to Remember

August 7- August Live Cattle Option Expiration

August 12- WASDE Report

August 14- August Lean Hog Expiration

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 98.850 102.850 4.000 107.125 8.275
National Cash 101.05 102.14 1.09 111.67 10.62
Index 98.44 97.48 0.96 110.26 11.82
Cutout 101.64 104.48 2.84 114.00 12.36
IA/SMN Cash 101.58 102.21 0.63 111.82 10.24
IA/SMN Weights 282.70 283.20 0.50 281.10 1.60
Slaughter 2,284,000 2,263,000 21,000 2,339,494 55,494

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 228-235 230.41 2 Higher 245.63 14.13
South Cash 230.53 235.50
North Steer Basis 1.50 8.00 6.50 14.75 13.25
Choice Boxes 361.53 363.32 1.79 361.32 0.21
Select Boxes 347.15 348.11 0.96 341.37 5.78
Spread 14.38 15.21 0.83 19.95 5.57
Carcass Weights 886 891 5 864 22
Slaughter 512,000 528,000 16,000 536,919 24,919
FC Index 345.83 349.65 3.82 335.01 10.82

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM N/A $235.00
KS $230.53 $235.50
NE 228-233 $230.41 $245.63
IA/MN 228-235 $230.51 $244.25

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 7/28/2026
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 66,523 8,840 -115,291 12,343 295,131 844
Feeder Cattle 7,423 482 -4,574 20 64,926 833
Lean Hogs -10,884 7,273 -56,334 5,595 259,267 7,202
Corn 168,399 75,490 -502,598 70,253 1,770,725 18,370
Soybeans 155,001 30,101 -259,519 32,103 1,000,050 9,065

Live Cattle Markets

October Live Cattle finished the day slightly lower. Support is at the 20-day MA of 226.100 and then 222.175. Resistance is at 230.375 followed by 232.550.

Feeder Cattle Markets

September Feeder Cattle finished over $13.000/cwt off the lows for the week. Support is at 336.325 and then 330.700. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 345.025 followed by 348.050.

Lean Hogs Markets

October Lean Hogs finished sharply lower two days this week. Support is at 82.100 and then 79.775. Resistance is at 85.700 followed by the 20-day MA of 86.150.

Corn Markets

September Corn finished below the 20-day MA this week. Support is at 434 3/4 and then 426 3/4. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 447 followed by 462 1/4.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.  Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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