8/4/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the day with good gains as boxed beef has began to work higher and expectations for cash this week are higher. Friday and yesterday’s the lower trade into the close did not look great technically but the futures shrugged off those worries today and traded higher. Boxed beef was quoted higher this morning with choice up $2.76 to $369.49 and select up $1.29 to $345.74. The cash market traded higher by the end of the week last week after a few sales at lower money last Monday. Iowa and Minnesota posted the highest steer averages at $233.46 with Nebraska showing the lowest average trade at $232.42. Expectations for this week are for 235 or higher with many hedgers looking for a positive $5.000 basis vs. the August futures contract. There were a few packers bidding steady money with last week early this week. Open Interest remains under 300,000 contracts and at the lowest levels in the past two years. Lack of interest from the speculative community along with many hedgers repositioning their protection in the past few weeks have both contributed to this number. The outside markets that typically influence the Live Cattle market were also beneficial today. Crude oil traded sharply lower and to the lowest levels since July 13, the DOQ finished over 900 points higher and nearly 200 points off of its highs, and the S&P 500 finished over 130 points higher.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle led the entire Cattle complex higher today with the Corn market trading lower and the CME Feeder Cattle index beginning to work higher. Feeder Cattle futures began the week higher but lost all of the initial gains as Corn traded sharply higher. Today, the futures opened lower and spent the rest of the day working higher and tested the highs from a few weeks ago. The nearby contracts continue to perform better than the deferred contracts as the industry looks for more inventory of Feeder Cattle with the opening of the Mexican border. Today, the CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $2.24 higher at $349.13. This is the first time the index has been quoted higher consecutively since the all-time high was posted on June 25. Demand for cash Feeder Cattle remains high as numbers continue to be tight and feedyards look to fill open pens.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures have traded sideways the past three trading sessions after a two day collapse in the middle of the week last week. All of the cash fundamentals have worked lower compared to a week ago. The pork cutout has fallen $3.54 compared to last Tuesday despite an increase of $0.90 yesterday and is now at $100.91. The hams have dropped nearly $30.00 over the course of the past few weeks leading the move lower in the cutout market. Last week’s estimated slaughter of 2,284,000 head, which was up 21,000 head from the week prior and 55,494 head larger than a year ago, has also added pressure. The Lean Hog index is currently at $97.68, down $0.55 on the week. The national cash average is quoted at $99.45, down $1.24. The futures have recovered over $2.500/cwt from the lows set on Thursday of last week and have held those lows for the past four days. Currently on the charts, the Lean Hogs are trading in an area that has limited support or resistance areas. The next big move in the futures market will dictate the direction heading into the end of the year.

Corn: The Corn market declined today despite a 2% drop in crop ratings and strong export inspections last week. Crude oil prices also fell, reflecting a softer tone amid the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran and talks about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Increased precipitation forecasts helped lower Corn prices as well. Technically, the December contract closed below the 100-day MA and at the support level of 466. Russia remains largely excluded from grain trade. The European Union continues to face severe drought, which may increase reliance on U.S. grain exports in the coming months.