8/7/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the day mixed after showing sharp losses in the middle of the day. Yesterday’s sell off erased five days worth of gains and pushed the nearby contracts right back to the 20-day MA. The move lower on Thursday looks to be fueled by rumors of a major packer closing a packing plant in the South but that rumor has since been confirmed to be untrue. The futures responded positively to begin the day but could not hold those gains throughout the day. Boxed beef has had a wild week, but ultimately finished the week slightly higher. This morning, choice was quoted $0.36 higher at $364.22 which is a gain of $2.69 on the week. Select was $1.35 higher at $351.13, $3.98 higher than last Friday. Seasonally, boxed beef works higher over the next few weeks heading into Labor Day but then softens until holiday demand appears. Cash this week was 235 live across all regions as well as 370 dressed. Almost all packers were involved at those levels and held the bids for the majority of the week despite the pressure on the futures market the last two days. Steer and heifer weights were steady at 933 pounds for the week ending July 25. Next week’s release of production will be the first data showing the effects of the heat that set in across the U.S. for four days. The death loss numbers from the heat are hard to quantify and it is hard to say how much weight cattle lost over that time, but carcass weights should remain in check for a few weeks.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished higher today after posting big losses on Thursday. Most contracts had tested the most recent highs from when the market tried to recover for a few days in the middle of July twice this week and the inability to move past those levels led to technical selling. Today, the futures started the day higher but eventually were sharply lower and moving toward the lows set last Monday following the news of the opening of the Mexican border. The futures rallied back toward the end of the day and the nearby contracts traded to new daily highs in the final hour. The nearby contracts continue to be more supported than the deferred contracts due to the Feeder Cattle index working higher along with the anticipation of more Feeder Cattle supply in the coming months with the opening of ports on the Southern border. Today, the Feeder Cattle index was quoted $4.43 higher at $357.36. This is a gain of $8.71 over the past two days and the index has now recovered $11.53 from the lows set on July 31. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as buyers of 1,182 contracts, increasing their long position to 8,605 contracts.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures tested contract lows in many of the deferred contracts today but ended the day mostly higher. All of the major cash and fundamental averages have worked lower this week along with the futures market. The National cash average lost $2.75 this week and is currently at $98.30. The pork cutout has been trending lower for almost a month now and was quoted $1.76 lower yesterday to $99.26 after a one day pop back over the $100 level. This is the lowest price for the pork cutout since July 9 and has been caused by multiple different cuts within the index. Exports this week were down compared to last week but still in line with the 10-week average. Total exports were 27,000 tonnes, down 8,000 on the week. Mexico accounted for nearly 63% of the export business for the week. As of Tuesday, the managed money was short 9,642 contracts which is a decrease of 1,242 contracts on the week.

Corn: Corn futures began the week with good gains on Monday and the USDA reported a 2% drop in corn conditions Monday evening. Despite the decrease, prices declined on Tuesday and Wednesday before partially recovering on Thursday and throughout the overnight into Friday morning but closed today steady. Lower crude oil prices throughout the week kept downward pressure on Corn, while moderate weather conditions reduced concerns regarding United States production. On Friday, Corn received support from fund managers and market positioning ahead of the upcoming Production Report scheduled for next Wednesday at 11 am. Yield estimates currently range from 181 to 184 bushels per acre, while the USDA’s July report projected a yield of 183 bushels per acre. The European Union has reported a significant reduction in production, and France is experiencing its smallest crop in five decades. Reports this afternoon suggest that the United States and Iran are nearing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the easing of geopolitical tensions has contributed to further declines in Corn prices.