9/11/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded to new highs for the move today and took out technical resistance levels in the process. The cash market also moved higher this week but not to the same extent as the futures resulting in a lower basis for the feedlots. Cash in the North was mainly 222 with a little bit of trade at 223 on the right cattle. Bids in the South of 224 were passed by many with hopes of a 226 trade this week. Boxed beef will finish the week relatively unchanged but was mixed on the morning report today. Choice was quoted $2.41 lower at $375.96 and select was $1.61 higher at $353.67. The beef markets have struggled to work higher in the past two weeks as the packers have increased kill with improved margins. In today’s WASDE Report, the USDA lowered beef production for 2026 for the second month in a row. Today they reduced beef production by 90 million pounds for the current year due to lighter slaughter numbers for the third quarter along with low cow slaughter. For 2027, production was reduced 145 million pounds. For 2026, production is forecasted as a 4% drop compared to 2025. The higher Corn prices will play a factor in carcass weights going forward and will be something to keep an eye on in the coming months.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the week sharply higher and finished positive every day this week. Most contract months traded through the 20-day MA at the beginning of the week and that created fund buying which help push the futures to the highest level in nearly a month. The Corn market also traded sideways to lower this week which helped support cash Feeder Cattle. Feeder Cattle across the country continue to sell well above what Live Cattle and Corn prices support. The CME Feeder Cattle index has also moved higher this week. Today, the index was quoted $2.26 higher at $331.22 and has now bounced $4.24 off the lows set on Monday. Today’s CFTC report showed the managed money as small sellers of the complex for the week. For the week ending on Tuesday, the funds were sellers of 727 contracts, decreasing their net-long position to 6,781 contracts.

Lean Hogs: From the open, Lean Hog futures steadily worked their way lower throughout the day, giving up their weekly gain with today’s trade. October closed $1.625 lower, settling at $81.525, the lowest close in 2 weeks. October will need to hold these levels, failure to do so presents downside risk to the contracts low near $80.00. The Lean Hog index was down $0.57 today, settling at $88.22, it is now $10.22 off the high set in late July.  The pork cutout was quoted at $91.81 yesterday, down $1.05 week-over-week. Bellies turned lower seasonally at the end of August and are now about $40 lower than that time and $61.46 lower than a year ago at this time.  Confirmation of Brazilian increases of pork exports have traders worried as they are competing with U.S. markets like South Korea. With an export market that already is seeing lack of optimism, any incoming competition could keep the pork market suppressed. CFTC data showed that managed money has started to unwind their net short position by 4,767 contracts, making them net short of 23,556 contracts. Next Friday’s report will be interesting as that will include the last few days’ sell-off. Remember managed money was at a record short position of 31,135 contracts just a few weeks ago.

Corn: Corn futures turned in a volatile session with a wide range today. The futures market started the day lower ahead of today’s WASDE report but did trade over ten cents higher after the report was released. That buying dried up and the futures finished the day lower but also off of the lows of the day. The USDA estimated the national Corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre which was a decrease of 2.2 bushels per acre from the August Report. New crop carryout continues to tighten as production is decreased and demand remains strong. Larger exports than expected for last year lowered the amount of bushels carried into this year. Exports for the 2026/2027 marketing year were left unchanged but the USDA did lower Feed demand by 150 million bushels. The focus within the grain markets will now shift back to production in other countries, tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and crude oil prices. The next USDA report will be at the end of the month with the Quarterly Stocks Report. It is important to note that the USDA has gone back to the previous crop year and adjusted the final yield in this report. This report could be no different as the 2025 crop continued to get bigger as the year progressed.