9/15/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded to big gains on Monday and pushed to the highest levels since August 12, but could not solidify those gains through today. Today’s lower finish ended the steak of higher closes that added over $6.00/cwt to most contracts. There has been no cash trade up to this point of the week to help support the futures but last weeks higher than expected cash market at the end of the week helped push the futures higher on Monday. Today, the futures started the day mixed but quickly traded lower and the selling continued throughout the entire day. Along with the futures being due for a set back, crude oil futures traded up to $4/barrel higher today and the stock market traded over 300 points lower. Boxed beef was mixed this morning and remains unchanged compared to week ago levels. Choice is currently at $376.46 which was up $1.15 on the day and select was down $0.19 at $354.36. Packers continue to work a fine line with weekly kill totals in order to keep the product market supported. Expectations for the cash market are higher this week but will likely be at the end of the week before trade takes place. The monthly Cattle on Feed Report will be released on Friday at 2pm. Estimates for cattle on feed are 101.8% compared to a year ago while marketings for the month of August are guessed down 3.8%.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle future broke a five day streak of higher closes today. The October contract had gained over $20.000/cwt during the month of September at the close yesterday on what looked to be short covering. There has been limited buying by the managed money as of the latest CFTC Report despite the market moving higher and pushing to the highest levels in nearly six weeks. The cash Feeder Cattle market continues to see cattle sell at very good levels and well above what the Live Cattle and Corn markets would suggest. Yesterday, the CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $10.49 higher to $341.71 and erased nearly three weeks of losses in one day. Today, the index was quoted $0.13 lower at $341.58. Light volumes of cattle helped contribute the sharply higher move but price across all regions has improved greatly over the past two weeks. Estimates for Friday’s Cattle on Feed report show placements for the month of August down 2.7% compared to a year ago. In the last report, July placements were the lowest total for the month in the history of the report.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures set new contract lows across the complex today. The market opened steady but consistently moved lower throughout the day. October ended the day down $0.525 settling at $79.075 while December took off $1.600, closing at $69.650.  The futures are now relying on support levels at $68.000 down to $64.000 in the December contract, a long-term support from the fall of 2023. Even though the managed money started to lift their record short position as of last Friday’s CFTC Report, open interest increased 7,536 contracts yesterday on a $1.450 move lower. It will not be surprising to see the managed money back near or at a record net short position come this Friday’s report. The pork cutout also reached new lows on Monday settling at $89.78, the lowest price since April 2025. Bellies set a price of $100.13, at risk of falling below $100.00 in September for the first time since 2019. After a hope of optimism the last couple weeks, it feels like all the air has been sucked out of this market in 3 days. 

Corn: December Corn futures opened the morning at 533 1/4 and rallied throughout the session, finding resistance around the 9-day moving average, and closing less than a penny off the daily highs. An announcement regarding CHS’s new soybean crush facility in Wisconsin provided optimism across the grain complex. The plant would have the capacity to crush approximately 66% of Wisconsin’s total soybean production. Monday’s grain export report showed total exports of 60.1 million bushels of Corn for the week ending September 10, 2026, bringing total exports for the new crop marketing year, which began September 1, to 85.7 million bushels. NASS estimates that 8% of the U.S. Corn crop had been harvested as of Monday’s Crop Progress report, 2 percentage points ahead of the five-year average and up 3 points from the previous week. Among the external headlines influencing grain markets, a drone strike shut down Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, pushing crude oil prices to new highs. Markets are also anticipating the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike since July 2023, expected tomorrow.