9/18/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the day mixed after trading sharply lower to start the day. Continued selling spilled over from the past two days but the futures complex recovered throughout the day. The cash market was mostly steady across all regions this week and most of the trade took place earlier in the week before the board experienced a big sell off. Cattle traded in the North at 222-223 in the middle of the week but there were some cattle that traded at 218 on Friday. Dressed trade was from 345-350 which would be steady to a little lower compared to a week ago. The South traded cattle at 226 and continue to have a premium vs. the Northern states. Boxed beef was lower for the week as choice finishes with a $4.63 loss compared to last Friday and is currently at $371.33. Select was basically unchanged and lost only $0.03 to finish at $353.70. The choice/select spread has now narrowed to $17.63. Rumors in the middle of the week sent the futures lower and erased nearly half of the gains from last week. President Trump is thinking of restricting cattle exports to Canada along with shutting of export of beef from the Untied States. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report will be friendly for the market on Monday morning as all categories were on the positive side of the pre-report estimates. Cattle on Feed in the U.S. as of September 1 were up 0.7% compared to a year ago and more than 1% less than expected. Fed cattle marked for the month of August 2026 were down 3.3% but 0.5% more than expected.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures shot lower throughout the final four days of the week and traded back down to the 20-day MA today. The deferred contracts experienced larger losses as one of the reasons for the lower trade was the opening of another port at the Mexican border later this month. The CME Feeder Cattle index had good gains this week and moved to the highest levels in over a month. Today, the index was quoted $0.67 lower at $342.50 but will still net a gain of $11.28 compared to last Friday. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed placements of Feeder Cattle into feed yards for the month of August down 9.2% compared to a year ago. The pre-report estimates were for placements to be down 2.7%. This is the lowest placement total for the month of August in the history of of the Cattle on Feed Report. This marks two months in a that there has been a new low record set for placements. The weight breakdown for classes of cattle were all very even compared to a year ago. The low placements the past few months help support what many have been predicting for the past six months, that the available number of fat cattle will be extremely limited after we turn the calendar to 2027.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures ended the week with the same story again, lower across the board. October futures gave up $0.800 closing at $78.10, while other months closed $0.975 to $1.250 lower. The market continues to set new lows across the whole complex, breaking many of the support levels left. The pork cutout continued to move lower this week, getting to a low of $86.35, now $18.47 (21%) off the recent highs in July. Bellies are the major factor in the slide lower, pricing at $85.48 yesterday, $15 away from a new 5-year low. Carcass weights have seen no change recently, which have now gone steady to last year at 212 pounds. Since February, we have been 2-3 pounds over 2025. Combination of high input costs, heat waves in August, and falling market have pushed producers to sell early and keep a few pounds off these animals. The question is, will it be enough to stabilize this hog market? Today’s released Commitment of Traders Report showed a major change that should be no surprise. Managed Money continued to add to their net short position by 7,800 contracts, bringing their total to a net of 31,401 shorts, a new record. There is a Hogs & Pigs report next Friday, maybe that can spark some positive interest in the hog complex.

Corn: December Corn opened Friday morning at 530 1/2 and initially traded lower before moving relatively flat for the remainder of the session, closing at 527 1/2. Technically, the December contract appears to be comfortable within its established trading range between 525 and 550. Friday’s commitment of traders showed a net increase of 16,994 contracts to the producer position and the managed money showed a net increase of 1,672 contracts, including options. As harvest progresses across the Corn Belt, weather conditions have become a more prevalent topic of conversation. While harvest is currently ahead of the five-year average, many areas of the corn growing region are experiencing excessively wet conditions. Concerns have also emerged surrounding the summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for next week. The two leaders are expected to discuss ongoing trade negotiations, which could have implications for U.S. Corn exports. On the energy front, crude oil markets appear to have encountered some resistance and pulled back from recent highs as Saudi Arabia has successfully restored partial movement through its East-West Pipeline and volume through the Strait of Hormuz has improved. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a ¼ percentage-point interest rate hike. At least one more rate hike is projected in 2026 as the fed works towards their target of returning to 2% inflation.