9/22/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: October Live Cattle opened this morning at 221.375 and traded lower throughout the session, closing at 218.775. The cattle complex started the week with a notable rally following Friday’s bullish Cattle on Feed report, which showed placements at 90.8% of last year, nearly 6% below the average estimate. It was easily the most bullish report relative to estimates the market has seen in the past year. The report also showed marketings at 96.6% of last year, notably above the average estimate, bringing total cattle on feed as of September 1 to 100.7% of last year. Futures responded Monday morning by gapping sharply higher at the open and closing $5 to $6 higher. Boxed beef has also had a strong start to the week, with the Choice cutout up $5.50 Monday afternoon and nearly another $2 this morning at $378.33. While some of the middle meats have pulled back, the rib continues to be the main driver of the cutout. Last week’s five-area cash trade averaged $222 live and $350 dressed. Cash has been quiet so far this week, but last week’s basis remained exceptionally strong for this time of year. Packers continue to see positive margins, and as a result, slaughter is estimated in the 530,000–540,000 head range this week. With cash fundamentals still relatively strong, the trade expects the October contract to converge toward cash as expiration approaches. Tighter placements, strong boxed beef values, and a firm cash basis continue to support the market, though today’s pullback suggests the trade may need to digest Monday’s gains before pushing higher.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures opened the day lower and continued to sell off for most of the session across the entire complex. October ended the day down $2.225, closing at 328.025 and giving up one-third of Monday’s gains. Closing just below the 50-day MA; a line the market has not been able to consistently trade above since mid-June. September closed the day at 337.275, while today’s index settled at $338.74. September Feeders expire on Thursday. Feeder cattle sales have been steady to higher to start the week across the country. The Santa Teresa, NM, port is scheduled to open on Thursday. Historically, this has been the largest Mexican cattle import crossing, accounting for 40–50% of live animal trade from Mexico. Douglas, AZ, has been allowing around 800 head per day, and it is expected that Santa Teresa will allow nearly 1,000 head per day. Doing the simple math, 1,800 head per day for six days a week over 18 weeks would put around 200,000 Mexican cattle into the U.S. by the end of the year. Obviously, this is subject to change due to the potential opening of a third port or more press releases. This amount is impactful, especially to Southern yards, but does not change the overall bullish fundamental position of the industry.

Hogs: Front-month Lean Hog futures opened $1 higher within the first 15 minutes of trading today and held near that level for the rest of the session. October closed the day up $1.20 at $79.275, the highest close in a week. With October “bouncing” off the $78.00 support line, traders are optimistic about a move back above $80.00. Today’s positive trade was due to a higher Pork Cutout print yesterday, which added $1.93, led by Bellies gaining $5.35 on the day. Last week’s slaughter was revised lower to 2.484 million head, taking a few more pounds of pork off the market. A lack of fresh news and a depressed market have kept managed money sidelined in the short term. On Thursday, the USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.

Corn: December Corn opened this morning at 543 and found support near the 20-day moving average at 535 1/2 before closing at 536 3/4. Tuesday’s session was relatively moderate compared to Monday’s 15-cent rally. While bull spreads have improved somewhat over the past few weeks, carry remains established across the futures curve, creating an interesting setup as managed money looks to roll out of the front months in the coming weeks. The March contract closed at 551, May at 557 3/4, and July at 559 3/4. Attention this week is focused on the White House, where President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday. Chatter about potential new grain sales to China has spread ahead of the meeting, giving the market further optimism. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed harvest continuing to accelerate, with 13% of the corn crop now harvested, compared to 8% last week and the five-year average of 11%. Although it is difficult to believe that wet conditions and harvest delays are meaningfully affecting yields at this point, weather continues to appear to be a bullish driver of the market. Meanwhile, news of a potential deal with Iran following the UN General Assembly meeting has pushed WTI crude more than $12 below its recent highs. The trade continues to weigh bullish export and weather developments against mounting harvest pressure and energy headlines.