9/25/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: The deferred Live Cattle futures have been supported all week while the nearby contracts have been under pressure for the majority of the week. The big news item this week was the ICE raids that took place at numerous slaughter facilities in Kansas. These raids caused many workers not to show up this week and lowered the daily and weekly kill to well below expectations. Wednesday’s total slaughter was estimated at just 94,000 head, 90,000 head on Thursday and Friday’s total was the smallest of the week at 87,000 head. The total estimated slaughter for the week is 484,000 head which is down 45,000 compared to a week ago and nearly 75,000 head less than the same week a year ago. The decrease in slaughter helped keep a lid on the cash market this week as the feedlots once again lost leverage. Bids in the North early in the week were from 220-223 with limited trade at all prices. Today, bids were from 217 to 219 with no trade. Large cattle along with poor pen conditions have caused feedlots to sell cattle at less than desirable prices. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice quoted $1.97 higher at $378.09 and select up $3.15 to $355.25. The smaller slaughter totals will help to support the boxed beef market next week. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as buyers of 1,721 contracts, increasing their net long position to 46,983. Open interest has increased the past few day as well, indicating new buying coming into the market.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures started the slightly lower but quickly moved to new highs for the week and are now testing the most recent highs that were set last week. The lower Corn futures helped support the Feeder Cattle complex at the beginning of the day, but despite Corn rebounding throughout the day the futures put new highs in late in the session. The cash market continues to be strong which has helped support the futures market. Today, the CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $1.72 higher to $338.79. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as buyers of just 208 contracts as of Tuesday which increased their net long position to 6,909 contracts. The deferred contracts continue to gain on the nearby contracts as there is a large discount out to those months along with continued optimism for tighter numbers into 2027. The Santa Teresa port in New Mexico opened this week and reported 400 head passed through yesterday. The Douglas, Arizona port has been open for over a month and is up to 1,100 head per day. The post in Columbus, New Mexico will be open within the next 30 days.

Lean Hogs: The USDA released their Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report on Thursday afternoon, and it told that same story as recent reports. The breeding herd is declining, down 1% from last year, but pigs per little continue to increase, which almost offset each other on production. Overall, the report was noted as slightly bullish mainly driven by an inventory number of 98.5% of last year with an estimated range of 98.5-99.4%. This was not enough bullish news to pull the Lean Hog complex out of its rut. Friday ended the day slightly weaker as October futures closed $0.975 lower and December $0.450 lower. The market seems to be searching for more positive news around demand to capture any buying. Looking at the demand side of this market, exports have not been poor and are currently on track for the high side of the last 10 years. It leaves a lot of questions around how to increase the domestic demand for pork. The pork cutout set a new near-term low at $86.10 with the bellies giving up half of their gains from the past week. The Lean Hog index posted another new low today also, down $0.27, at $82.20. Cold Storage Report released this afternoon showed total pork is up 12% from last year but down 5.6% over a 5-year average. The CFTC Commitment of traders report showed that as of Tuesday, managed money was net short a new record of 35,548 contracts.

Corn: December corn opened this morning at 515 1/2 after trading sharply lower throughout the overnight session, but steadily worked its way higher throughout the day to close at 528 1/4. The 526 level has proven to be strong support for the December contract over the past few weeks. Little news has come out of the highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington D.C. this week, and the trade is likely still pricing in hopes of new sales to China despite little confirmation. Today’s weekly export sales report showed Corn at 838,300 MT, at the lower end of estimates, with Japan and Mexico as the largest buyers. Geopolitical news continues to weigh on grain markets this week, as discussion of restoring Black Sea grain exports sent wheat sharply lower. Meanwhile, soybean demand has been a widespread headline, with the western Corn Belt seeing notably strong basis levels amid wet conditions and harvest delays. With the national average diesel price now above $6.50, several states have temporarily lifted penalties on using off-road diesel in farm vehicles.  With harvest pressure continuing to build and trade headlines still unresolved, expect continued volatility heading into next week.