10/9/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded to the highest levels since the beginning of August today. The complex was lead by the Feeder Cattle markets today which shot higher with the Corn market trading sharply lower. Live Cattle have traded through many resistance levels this week and finally broke out of the three week long sideways range that the market had been stuck in. Cash cattle did not trade higher this week, at least in the Northern regions. Trade took place in the North on Thursday at 218-221 while the South has yet to trade with asking prices at 230. Boxed beef traded sharply lower this week after a week of good gains last week. Choice was quoted $374.70, down $0.15 on the day but a loss of $10.28 on the week. Select was quoted $4.29 higher today at $356.02 with a weekly loss of $10.95. This weeks estimated slaughter was 531,000 head which a respectable number for the year of 2026 but down 17,000 compared to a week ago. The Live Cattle complex will look for stronger fundamentals next week to help solidify the higher futures move. Today’s move will likely bring open interest and fund activity into the market as the futures now eye the gaps left on the chart in the middle of July.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the week with large gains on Friday and on a weekly basis. Tuesday’s trading session pushed the Feeder Cattle complex near a daily limit up move but during Wednesday and Thursday’s trade the market seemed tired and traded lower most of the day. Yesterday, the futures rallied into the close but still finished the day with significant losses. The futures opened the day mixed but quickly found support and traded back toward the highs of the week before watching Corn tumble to limit lower, helping spark the feeders to trade sharply higher. Today’s move higher pushed the futures to multi-month highs and through many technical resistance levels. The CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $.34 higher at $337.07 for the day and will finish the week more than $3.00 higher. The lower Corn market and now the higher Live Cattle futures will keep the cash Feeder Cattle market supported and push the index back above the $340.00 level.

Lean Hogs: Optimism rained across the Lean Hog complex last Friday into the beginning of this week, but that was short lived, as we were lower Tuesday through Friday. The December futures market set a new low today, closing $0.775 lower, at $67.825. The bearish pressure continues as we come into the heart of fall. Led lower by a slumping pork cutout, higher kill numbers and weights, and soft domestic demands. Thursday’s daily cutout print was $79.64, the lowest since April of 2023. All primal cuts were lower except for the picnic, while Bellies were the biggest surprise being $7.45 lower. Slaughter rates continue to stay steady with last year only down 0.9% while carcass weights are one to two pounds higher year over year. With a limited summer rally on pork, domestic demand seasonally lacks any bullishness this time of year. CFTC’s commitment of trader’s report showed 8,914 contracts of long positions added up to Tuesday’s trade, expect those longs to be taken away on next Friday’s report. 

Corn: A volatile session for Corn, opening overnight at 500 even and closing this afternoon at 479 3/4. Today’s WASDE report came as a bearish surprise to the market. The USDA raised its yield estimate to 181.2 from 178.5 last month, while the trade had expected a slight trim, with the average estimate around 177.8. Futures reacted sharply, falling 18 cents in the minute following the release and trading limit-down (30 cents) multiple times throughout the afternoon. This price action broke through both key support levels and the long-term trend the December contract had established. With managed money still holding a near-record long position, aggressive liquidation, compounded by harvest pressure, poses a substantial risk of unwinding the summer rally. Additionally, as comfortable supplies continue to push the futures complex into a carry, funds have an incentive to liquidate rather than bear the cost of rolling and maintaining long exposure. On the other hand, funds may weigh that cost against several supportive factors, such as an inflation hedge, export optimism, or bullish global weather sentiment. Looking to next week, eyes will be on how the market continues to digest this report and whether it sees follow-through selling after the initial shock. Additionally, the trade will be watching for new fundamental information as corn harvest progresses.