10/6/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures erased all of the losses seen the past two days with the nearby contracts testing the upper end of the sideways range they have been stuck in and the deferred contracts testing those highs. The futures started the day on Friday under heavy pressure after Thursday afternoon’s sharply lower boxed beef trade. That selling trickled into this week and pressed the market lower early in the day on Monday. Yesterday, boxed beef found support which helped the complex rebound some late in the day but gave the spark needed this morning to move the futures higher and with the morning beef report printing higher the market continued to trade higher into the end of the day. Boxed beef is back to nearly unchanged with week ago levels. This morning, choice was quoted $4.20 higher at $382.46 and select was $2.05 higher at $360.62. Last week’s large slaughter total could keep pressure on the beef markets in the short term, but for the start of this week has had no impact. Most of the futures months took out their most recent highs from the middle of September and others come within a few dollars. The market will search for continued positive news from the cash market and beef markets to continue to push higher. Over the past month the futures have wanted to move higher but lack of positive fundamentals have kept the market in check.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures quickly erased over $9.000/cwt on Friday and Monday but gained all of that back plus more late in the day yesterday and throughout the day today. The entire complex tested the highs from Thursday during today’s session and eventually broke through those levels despite Corn finishing the day more than 10 cents higher. Cash Feeder Cattle remain to be supported and have helped support the Feeder Cattle index which has held when the futures markets work lower. Today, the index was quoted $0.54 lower at $337.22 and is now discounted to the nearby October Futures. Sharply higher moves like we saw today, take a few days to show up in the CME Feeder Cattle index as the cash prices will work higher and those sales need to be reported by the USDA. Last week’s CFTC report showed the managed money as buyers of just 729 contracts, increasing their net long position to 7,638. This Friday’s CFTC report will most likely show buying throughout the week by the managed money. Open interest within the complex has rose back above 64,000 contracts after falling sharply throughout the first past of September.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures ended the day mixed, with December ending down $0.575 and closing at $70.375. The December futures market gave us a nice three-day stretch starting last Thursday, gaining $3.25 from the lows. The Lean Hog Index printed at $79.63 yesterday, almost $10 higher than the December board. This is not uncommon for this time of year, and as we get closer to settlement, expect that spread to historically narrow. The Pork Cutout was $1.53 higher at $86.01, led by the bellies. Watching the belly market find strength at $90+ is a major win for the product after giving up over $70 during the month of September. We are currently $40 below the 10-year average belly price but only $4 below the 10-year average carcass value. As we enter the last quarter of the year, the same story prevails: supply is staying steady, and demand continues to be lackluster domestically. Maybe the upcoming holidays will be the fuel needed to push this hog complex back near $100.

Grains: Grain futures ended the day sharply higher across the board, with corn up $0.1075, soybeans up $0.2225, and Chicago wheat up $0.12. After a few days of trading sideways, the market found new buyers as we get into the first few weeks of harvest. Harvest progress is showing some delay across the country, as anticipated. Corn was 23% harvested versus the 27% five-year average, while soybeans were 25% completed versus the 33% average. That news, coupled with quality and yield concerns, is giving the market a reason to add/keep length. One common theme heard from some of our customers is quality issues in beans related to dusty, moldy, or discolored beans. Yields have been as expected for now in NW Iowa/SW Minnesota. Trump signed an executive order last night allowing off-road, “red-dyed” diesel to be used in all highway vehicles through the end of the year. This creates some short-term relief for freight costs.