10/2/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished lower today and have been stuck in a sideways to higher trend for the past two weeks. Cash trade in the South offered the complex a spark in the middle of the day yesterday but that could not spill over into today. The South traded cattle at steady money again this week at 226 while the North traded from 218 to 220 which would be steady with a weaker tone. Dressed trade in the North took place from 345-350. The boxed beef markets saw sizable losses yesterday and helped contribute to the sell off today. Yesterday afternoon, choice was $6.60 lower on the day and select lost $7.70. This morning, boxed beef was mixed with choice quoted $2.43 lower at $374.36 while select was $0.47 higher at $353.36. Both choice and select will show slight losses for the week with the spread narrowing $1.84. This week’s estimated slaughter is 548,000 head which is the second largest total weekly kill of 2026 and is fueled by a 38,000 head kill on Saturday. Packers in the South continue to try to make up for lost kill a week ago due to the ICE raids at many plants. Increased kills will continue to add pressure the the cutout market as we move forward as more supply hits the market. Steer and heifer weights released this week were down two pounds for the week ending September 19 but remain ten pounds larger than a year ago.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures ended the day with large losses after trading into overhead resistance levels yesterday. Most of the months traded within a few cents of the highs set on July 21. This was the high set that day after a sell off that lasted three weeks without any relief, but was the high set before the futures erased another $20.000/cwt in the following week. Today’s move lower felt more like profit taking after the futures rallied over $10.000/cwt off the lows set on Tuesday, but makes the chart picture look more like we cannot trade back above these levels that now have four different resistance levels all in the same area. The Corn market working lower the final three days of this week helped support the Feeder Cattle complex along with the CME Feeder Cattle remaining supported. Today’s release of the index was $2.13 lower on the day at $336.84. This is a loss of $1.95 on the week but the index has been mostly sideways for the past two weeks.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures posted new contract lows on Thursday but found buying throughout the day to finish with limited losses and then finished the day today with good gains. The cash fundamentals continue to work lower and not give support to the futures complex. The national cash average fell $2.02 this week to $76.93 while the Iowa/Southern Minnesota average lost $2.32 to $76.92. The Lean Hog index fell $1.50 this week to $80.70 and lost over $10.00 over the month of September. Yesterday the pork cutout was $0.34 higher to $85.29 and has seen less downward pressure than the other fundamentals. This week’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers again this week and set a new record short position of 44,186 contracts. This is an increase of 8,638 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. Iowa/Southern Minnesota hog weights jumped this week and are now at 289.3 pounds which is up 2.30 pounds compared to a week ago.

Corn: December Corn opened the overnight session at 501 1/2 and traded mostly steady into the morning before pulling back to close at 497 3/4 this afternoon. Wednesday’s quarterly Grain Stocks Report was a bearish surprise. The USDA estimated old-crop stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, roughly 173 million above the trade’s 1.922 billion expectation and 35% above a year ago. The report sent Corn sharply lower Wednesday, with December closing at 500 3/4, down 21 cents. The psychological 500 level has become immediate overhead resistance. Critical short-term support sits at the 495 double bottoms found in yesterday and today’s session. A clean break lower would open the door to the mid-to-late August shelf around 488–486. Traders will look to the October 9 WASDE Report for further updates to the old-crop balance sheet, most likely a downward revision to feed and residual usage. Many producers expect to be in the field next week as drier conditions allow harvest to accelerate. Focus in the week ahead will be on fundamental developments and seasonal harvest pressure. Soybean basis in Northwest Iowa has already began to fade and Corn basis will most likely follow as ethanol plants and feed mills begin to gain inventory.