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10/20/2026 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live cattle futures have found strength over the last several sessions across the curve, grinding higher for most of the day to close at 229.45 in October and 230.175 in December. Deferred contracts continue to hold above the 200-day moving average, and today’s trade closed the gap left in the December contract at 230.175 back in July. Cash trade finally broke out of the $220 range, with the 5-area average at $224 last week, up about $4. While USDA is not publishing Southern trade, the majority of volume likely traded around $228, and cash is expected to move higher again this week. USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report this Friday. Average estimates project cattle on feed at 100.3% of year-ago levels, placements at 91%, and marketings at 92.8%. Beef values continue to hold in the $370 range, with Choice boxed beef at $374.14 this morning. Last week’s slaughter was the third-largest of the year and the highest since February, up 18,000 head from the prior week. Excluding non-fed production, last week’s beef production would have been the highest of the year. This week’s slaughter is estimated at 553,000 head.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures started the day $1.00 lower but quickly turned green during the session. Due to a strong Live Cattle market and a declining corn market, Feeder Cattle futures ended $1.475 to $3.025 higher. The feeder index did not follow suit, as it lost $1.29 on the day to $342.16, now $3.74 lower than the October futures. Feeder cattle sales continue to be strong in the barns, especially in the North. With fall calf runs in full motion, we are seeing some optimistic purchases across the Western Front. With this optimism, we would expect to see calf prices continue to stay steady, even if the index pulls futures lower. After this Friday’s close, the USDA will release the October Cattle on Feed report. Early estimates are bullish, which pushed this market higher over the last week. There are no real surprises here. Last month, we missed placements, leading to a rally, and futures traders believe that may happen again. As expected, we are importing about 7,000 to 8,000 Mexican cattle per week. Next Monday, the third port in Columbus, NM, will also be opening up, with the expectation of a fourth opening very soon as the process looks smooth from the outside.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures had another uneventful day during today’s trading session. Futures ended anywhere from $0.80 higher in December to $0.425 lower in June. The same story continues that we have seen over the past few weeks. Cash is unable to capture any momentum, followed by a depressed cutout market. StoneX and Iowa State have current farrow-to-finish margins at -$32.68/head and forward margins at -$50.28 per head. Each of these is $60 lower than a year ago, which surprises no one in the industry. The lack of margin in this market has left many producers unable to add protection at a respectable level. The Commitment of Traders report shows that commercial/producer shorts are near a record low. In our opinion, that will continue to shrink, especially once we get past the December contract. A change in the complex does not look imminent until we see demand improve internationally and domestically.
Corn: Corn spent most of the morning searching for new lows before recovering some midday to close at 462. Immediate psychological and technical support sits at the 460 handle, near the session low of 461. A clean break below 460 opens the door to deeper downside targets around 450. That said, both technical indicators and market sentiment suggest the complex is oversold. Harvest pressure and a competitive South American export environment remain the main bearish drivers, limiting any immediate urgency in global demand. Without a bullish catalyst, these narratives continue to fuel selling pressure and fund liquidation. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn harvest at 44% complete, behind the five-year average of 52%. Most of the lag is concentrated in the western Corn Belt states of Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Soybean harvest is estimated at 64% complete, just behind the five-year average of 65%.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
October 23- Cattle on Feed Report
October 29- October Feeder Cattle Expiration
October 30- October Live Cattle Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 10/13/2026
Live Cattle Markets
December Live Cattle filled the previous gab at $230.175, and closed on the topside of that gap. The market also closed above the 200-day Moving Average, a mark we failed to break higher on in July.
Feeder Cattle Markets
November Feeder Cattle closed 2 days in a row above the 200-day Moving Average, a bullish signal. $342.10 becomes the first line of support, followed by $336. Upside target of $350 is the next level of resistance.
Lean Hogs Markets
December Lean Hogs set a new low on last Thursday’s trade. $66 will become the new line of support in the short term, which is also near a 5-year low. Resistance will be found near $70.
Corn Markets
December Corn broke through all major moving averages last week. Support is found at 460, failure to hold leaves 450 as the next point of support. Resistance in December will be found at 480, near the 200-day moving average. Break above there would set up the potential for 500 target.