10/16/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures pushed to new highs for the move today and traded through many chart objectives left from over two months ago. Today, the Live Cattle market lead the entire cattle complex which has not happened in the better part of two months. The cash market looks to be the main reason for the increased futures market. Cattle in the North traded anywhere from 220 early in the week to as high as 225 today, with the majority of cattle being traded at 222 to 224. The South has yet to trade this week as packer bids of 228 are met with offers from the feedlot at 229 or 230. Boxed beef has held pretty steady for the majority of the week after have a few rough days toward the beginning of the week. Today, choice was quoted $0.79 lower at $373.19 while select was $0.41 higher at $353.03. Average carcass weights for the week ending October 3 were nine pounds higher while steer and heifer weights were only up two pounds compared to the previous week. This week’s estimated slaughter is 553,000 which is the second highest week of 2026, right behind the second week of the year at 562,000. This Saturday’s kill of 21,000 head is a modest number, well above many weeks with no kill but short of the 30,000 head daily slaughter a few weeks ago. Packers remain profitable and are willing to push chain speeds as long as boxed beef can remain supported.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures had another good week, following up big gains a week ago. Today, the Feeder Cattle complex acted tired given all other things taking place in the market. Live Cattle futures were higher and Corn was lower and the Feeder Cattle traded in a tight range that saw selling on most rallies. The nearby October contract again trades above the CME feeder Cattle index but that spread narrow with today’s release of the index. Currently, the index is at $343.54 which was up $0.90 on the day but up $6.81 compared to last Friday. The October contract will expire in just under two weeks and the index and futures will likely trade in tandem until then. Open interest within the complex has been relatively unchanged throughout the week and will end with a loss of about 1,200 contracts. This would indicate that there has been limited new buying in the Feeders but instead short covering. Most of the drop has come in the nearby months, which makes sense with the October contract as it nears expiration.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog Futures ended on a positive note this week with the board ending $0.35 – $1.65 higher. Thursday December futures made a new contract lows of $65.80, testing a 6-year low of nearby futures. Optimism around the hog complex continues to diminish weekly as the cut-out and cash fail to have any footing. The pork cut-out is challenging a 5 year low coming in at $77.55 on Thursday. Bellies continue to hold that $80-$90 level but are still almost $50 off last year and lowest in 10 years at this time. The rest of the primal cuts are in the middle of a 10-year range, leaving the question, what has happened to belly demand over the last 18 months? The Lean Hog index came in at $75.09 which is over $8 over the December close. CFTC commitment of trader’s report showed managed money adding 6,816 shorts to their net long position. This was not a surprise as the pressure setting an another record short position, as the commercial/ producers are at a near record small, short position.

Corn: December corn opened overnight at 478 and traded steadily lower throughout the session to close at 474 ½ this afternoon. Over the last several trading sessions, Dec corn has remained under steady downward pressure, closing below the 200-day moving average both yesterday and today. Fund liquidation and harvest pressure continue to be the main narrative, driving the corn complex through what were once support levels. Today’s CFTC report showed the funds as net sellers of corn, liquidating 86k contracts. This brings the funds’ total long position to just over 230k contracts, down more than 200k contracts from the record position seen in late summer. This change reflects the post-WASDE market move seen a week ago. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report pegs corn harvest at 33%, behind the 5-year average of 39%, while soybeans were estimated at 46% harvested compared to a 5-year average of 50%. Parts of Kansas and Nebraska experienced wet conditions midweek, continuing to slow harvest progress. NOPA’s September crush report came in at 196.3 mbu, well below the 203.7 mbu trade estimate and down from 205.5 mbu in August. It is also the first time this year that crush volume has dropped below year-ago levels.