10/13/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded nearly a dollar higher this morning but could not hold those gains throughout the day and spent most of the trading session in negative territory. The nearby contracts held up better than the deferred as the October contract only has just over two weeks to go until expiration and the Southern cash remains at 226. Last week’s steady market in the South may have been a bit of a disappointment after Friday’s sharply higher futures move. This is the fourth week in a row that the South has traded at 226, while the North remains at 218 to 22 live and 345 dressed. Boxed beef was slightly higher this morning but remains over $5 lower than week ago levels. This morning, choice was $0.98 higher at $374.54 while select was up $1.55 to $355.68. Expectations early this week were for a higher market in all regions due to the higher priced futures along with a supported box market but it feels like that optimism is fading into another steady trade this week. Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money as small sellers of the Live Cattle complex for the week ending last Tuesday. The funds sold 384 contracts through the week to reduce their net long position to 50,920 contracts.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures also started the day higher but quickly moved lower and settled in relatively unchanged for the majority of the day. The Feeder Cattle complex continues to be supported by a lower Corn market and higher deferred Live Cattle prices. The CME Feeder Cattle index has remained supported but has held below $340.00 for the last 25 days. Today the index was quoted back above that $340.00 level and was up $2.85 to $341.47. This is the highest print of the index since September 18. Feeder Cattle continue to be in tight supply even with the opening of a few ports on the Mexican border. Feedlots have been forced to pay up to acquire inventory to keep pens full and that has been reflected in the spreads between Feeder Cattle, Corn, and Live Cattle. This spread has improved over the past month but still remains in negative area.

Corn: December Corn opened the overnight session at 483 and traded slightly higher until mid-morning before pulling back to close at 482 3/4. The grain markets continue to digest the recent WASDE shock, with Corn now about 12 cents off report-day lows. Over the last two sessions, the market has attempted to stabilize, finding short-term support in the 476–478 area and looking toward 487 to establish a range back above the 100-day moving average. Further topside resistance remains in the 500 area, a barrier the market must clear to return to pre-report levels. With December Corn trading around 483, March around 497, and July around 510, the market is pricing in 14-cent and 27-cent premiums, respectively, for carry into deferred marketing periods. While this may seem enticing at first, producers should weigh their individual commercial storage costs against what the market is incentivizing today. Based on average monthly tariff quotes and interest rates of 7% or more, holding corn in commercial storage on futures carry alone is underwater. This makes the commercial storage bet entirely dependent on substantial post-harvest basis improvement. It is also worth noting that Friday’s CFTC data showed the funds as net sellers for the period, reducing their long position by about 60,000 contracts. Because this report lags by a week, it is likely the funds’ current long position has been reduced further.

Hogs: Lean Hog futures struggled to build off Monday’s modest gains, instead giving up half to all that positive move.  Today, December lost $0.35 while April gave up $0.925. Another week of lacking positive news continues for the Lean Hog complex. Looking at a nearby continuous futures chart, we are nearing a 5-year low of $66.00 set in the fall of 2023. In a positive light, our most likely support comes in this area and we are half-way through the typical seasonal pressure. On the negative side of things, the pork cut-out continues its trend lower over the past 3 months, losing $25.18. This is a similar low price found in 2023 when futures set a low. USDA has 2026 pork production up 0.2% from 2025 and expect 2027 to be 0.7% higher. These larger expectations do not seem to be the reason for 5-year lows in the hog market. Demand continues to be the issue surrounding the pork complex. USDA has reduced their 2026 export expectations down 60 million lbs and 2027 exports down 95 million lbs. These revisions were mainly due to expected weakness in the Mexican market and no additional sales to other parts of the world. Domestic demand for pork has to increase for this market to find strength and encourage managed money to enter from the long side, until then, expect a sideways to lower trade for now.