10/23/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures struggled to find traction throughout the day today and could not be pulled higher by the Feeder Cattle complex. The market opened lower this morning but quickly recovered to steady and traded just slightly higher for most of the morning before finishing the day mixed. The lack of cash news up to this point of the week has not been helpful in continuing to push the market higher, along with this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report giving traders hesitation to buy the complex. There has been no cash news in the North, with packers waiting until this afternoon to bid on cattle. The South saw bids of $226 today after bids of $228 yesterday. The rally in futures has caused feedlots to price cattle higher to help narrow the basis, but packers have been reluctant to pay more. Most packers say they have a good amount of inventory to get them by for a while, along with November contracts that will help fill the first few weeks of the month. Boxed beef traded lower this week, as both Choice and Select will finish the week lower than week-ago levels. This morning, Choice was quoted $1.83 lower on the day at $367.64, a loss of $5.55 on the week. Select was down $0.46 today at $349.95 and lost $3.08 on the week. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed cattle on feed down just slightly compared to a year ago at 11,372,000 head. This is a decrease of 46,000 head compared to last year. Cattle marketings in September were down 7% compared to September 2025 and were right in line with the average estimate ahead of the report.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures recovered all of yesterday’s losses throughout the day today but ended the day well off those highs. Wednesday’s push higher took prices to the highest levels since the beginning of July and has now pushed the Feeder Cattle complex above most all resistance areas. Both futures and the cash market have been supported by the rally in the Live Cattle complex, along with corn quickly falling 90 cents a bushel. Cash feeders have not moved higher to the extent of futures, but cash feeders were selling well above Feeder Cattle futures and what the crush would suggest. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is currently at $345.09, which was up $1.52 on the day. With today’s push higher in the October futures, the index is currently at a $3.24 discount to the index. These will need to converge by next Thursday when the October contract expires. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of September down 12% compared to a year ago and 3.7% below the average estimate. This is a miss of over 75,000 head from expectations. Total placements were 1,177,000 head, the lowest total for the month of September in the history of this report.

Lean Hogs: Another week of new contract lows was set for front-month futures, but December failed to break through the $65.00 level. The last time the complex was below $65.00 was December 2020. Looking at long-term charts, this looks like the final stand before risk in the low $60s to mid-$50s becomes a realistic price. Any form of positive news would be welcomed in this market, as the cutout once again set a new recent low this week. On Wednesday, the price was $74.50, where bellies gave up $12 in one day but recaptured $7 of that on Thursday’s report. Seasonality of the market, poor demand indicators, and consistent supply: things continue to look bleak for the next couple of months. Domestic demand is the largest surprise for many industry people, especially when you compare the cost of proteins. For example, 1 pound of ground beef was averaging $6.89 per pound, whereas 1 pound of pork loin was around $3.00 per pound on average, less than half the cost. Yet, consumers are rarely changing their habits. Obviously, something needs to change. The Commitment of Traders report showed managed money adding 955 contracts to their long position, leaving them net short 41,127 contracts.

Corn: December corn opened the overnight session at 460 and closed this afternoon at 456. The complex has remained under steady pressure over the past several sessions, carving out a pattern of lower highs and lower lows after breaking below key intermediate support at 465–468 earlier in the week and extending its slide toward 455–457. Today’s session followed that pattern, finding support around 456. The market appears comfortable sitting in oversold territory, and a bullish catalyst is still needed to drive any substantial gains. Week over week, basis has improved by about 2 cents across much of the western Corn Belt, reflecting firmer near-term commercial demand, or rather, a lack of producer selling. The CFTC report shows managed money liquidating another 84,600 contracts, bringing its net long position to 146,000, down from a record long of more than 430,000 contracts in early fall. On the demand side, USDA’s export sales report showed corn sales topping the range of estimates at just over 60 million bushels. In the week ahead, the trade will continue to look to export demand, harvest pressure, and macroeconomic policy for direction.