10/30/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded lower the entire day today and escalated the loses throughout the day. Today’s move pushed the entire complex through many support areas and moving averages which makes the technical picture look quite messy. The market appeared to be tired and toppy at the end of last week after a month long push higher. Last week’s Cattle on Feed Report was bullish compared to the pre-report estimates but the futures posted their weekly high in the opening minutes on Monday morning and could not find support. The cash market was also lower which surprised many. Bids in the North late last week of 228 were met with offers of 230 by the feedlots. The hope for this week was a 230 cash market in the North nut a major in the North started with bids at 224 in the middle of the week and that kicked off the cash trade. There was limited trade at 226 in Nebraska yesterday, but the 224 trade was the best that the north saw. Bids slid to 220-222 on Thursday and 345-348 on a dressed basis with packers not having a bid on Friday. Boxed beef will finish the week slightly lower compared to a week ago after a very strong start to the week through Tuesday. This morning choice was quoted at $366.88, down $0.40 while select was up $1.65 at $353.28. Larger carcasses and large weekly kills continue to add production to the market, making it hard for boxed beef to sustain any higher moves.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded to limit lower near the end of the session today. Fund liquidation and end of the month profit taking looked to be the main culprit as the selling started early and gained speed throughout the day. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to sell well and through Thursday’s sales, the CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted at $351.26, down just $0.17 on the day. The index still gained $6.17 on the week compared to last Friday. Technically the feeders moved through the 20-day MA and the 200-day MA today. The next line of support is the 100-day MA which is another $4/cwt below today’s settlement. If that does not hold there are a few consolidation areas from the beginning of October that will catch traders eyes. Monday is a new month and the funds could come back into the cattle complex, but today felt like a much bigger move than just month end activity.

Lean Hogs: Another tough week for the lean hog complex, after feeling optimistic about Thursday’s positive movement. The story continues as the pork cut-out slides lower and there are limited bids to be found in the cash market. On Thursday afternoon, the cut-out printed a new recent low of $70.69, $1.76 lower than the previous day.   Cash is posted at $56.56 but has had limited reports due to confidential reporting standards. There have been a couple positive notes finally circling the complex. Total weekly pork exports printed at a recent high of 42k tonnes, a number we have not seen in a few months. Led by a 6-month high of Mexican exports at 23k tonnes. Also, on Thursday afternoon, the USDA announced an Agricultural Product buy back program totaling $472.5 million. Of that, $41 million was slated for pork with the purpose of stabilizing ag markets, reaching producers across the country, and supporting rural jobs. These were two positives that did not change the direction of the market, perhaps traders bought the rumor on Thursday and sold the fact on Friday. The commitment of traders report showed that managed money added to their net short position with 5,977 contracts, totaling 47,109 contracts short. This is another record short position for managed money.

Corn: Another session of trade on either side of 450 in December corn, which opened the overnight at 451 ¼ and closed this afternoon at 447 ¾. The December contract appears to have found short-term support around 447, but the complex is struggling to find upside momentum, and overhead resistance has capped every minor rebound attempt. Fund liquidation and harvest pressure remain the two biggest bearish drivers. Today’s CFTC report shows funds liquidated another 90,000 contracts, bringing their net long position down to just 56,000 contracts. Export demand has been strong, with USDA reporting 51.3 million bushels sold abroad this past week. On the global front, Russia stated it intends to move exports through routes outside the Black Sea, and China made its first inquiry for U.S. wheat since the Trump-Xi summit. With corn harvest at its slowest pace in seven years and prices at current levels, front-end basis continues to improve, with many locations in the western Corn Belt up another 2 cents. Heading into the weekend, more moisture is forecast for much of the Midwest, likely causing further harvest delays.