Commentary

Cattle futures fell due to bird flu concerns, though live cattle saw some recovery later, while feeder cattle remained weak with lower cash prices and pressure from imports from Mexico. Lean hogs stayed strong with higher production forecasts and strong prices, nearing contract highs. Corn markets held steady despite lower South American production estimates, strong U.S. ethanol demand and unchanged export projections.

Cash cattle traded $2 lower in the country this week, starting the downward trade in the futures. News of a new strain of bird flu caused the managed money to start to exit their near record-long position. Lean hog futures rebounded to end the week after the tariffs with Mexico were delayed a month. Corn posted new highs for the move this week but finished the week lower.

Agriculture commodities have seen a volatile start to the week and the month of February. Live and Feeder Cattle have seen lower prices on the reopening of the Mexican border for Feeder Cattle imports. Hog traders are paying close attention to tariff talks with Mexico, our biggest buyer of pork, and the grain markets have surged back to the most recent highs as tariffs with Mexico have been delayed until March 1.

Agriculture commodities finished the week under pressure as the Trump administration threatens tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Cash cattle trade was sharply higher in the south, while the north held together a fully steady week. Grain futures finished the week lower with concerns over tariffs and an abundance of bushels moving to end users. All eyes will be on announcements out of the White House this weekend that will set the stage for the beginning of the week.

Live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hog futures are climbing, supported by strong cash markets, record-long positions, and tight supplies, with February live cattle futures up $16.950/cwt in 2025. Corn rebounded slightly after a two-day decline, helped by export sales and Argentina’s reduced export taxes, though cash basis weakens amid farmer selling.

Live cattle markets surged, with cash prices climbing to new highs and futures breaking records, driven by strong fundamentals and fund activity, while feedlot trade reached as high as $214/cwt. Feeder cattle and lean hog markets also showed strength, supported by record-long fund positions and higher cash values, while corn futures faced resistance near $5 amid increased global exports and rising ethanol production.

Live cattle futures began the shortened holiday week with a softer tone, as traders remain cautious about the sustainability of the current cash market, and consumer demand shows signs of weakening due to high meat counter prices. Feeder cattle cash markets appear to have plateaued, with weather and rising corn prices affecting bids, while lean hog futures saw early gains erased amid steady cash and product prices and favorable export conditions with Mexico.

Live cattle prices started the week with higher expectations but settled slightly lower due to futures’ inability to reach new highs, while average carcass weights rose above the three-year average. Feeder cattle markets remain strong with tight supplies and high demand, but questions persist about feedlot sustainability amid rising costs, and discussions around reopening the Mexican border for imports remain stalled, potentially impacting U.S. prices.