8/28/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week lower after another week of lower cash trade. The futures market showed signs of life throughout the week but the President’s comments about importing beef kept pressure on the markets for the entire week. Cash trade this week was mostly 218 in the North on a live basis and 345 dressed. There have been cattle that traded at 220 the past few days and there are reports of packers paying 222 this afternoon. The South has traded from 220-222 but there are some feedlots holding out for 223 or 224. The packers increased chain speed this week as their margin have improved greatly the past couple of week. This week’s estimated slaughter is 542,000 head which is 19,000 head larger than a week ago but well below year ago levels. This is the second largest weekly slaughter total of the year behind the second week of January. The increased slaughter totals will equal more weekly beef production in the U.S. which will add pressure to the boxed beef markets. Choice will finish the week sharply lower while select saw limited losses. this morning, choice was quoted $$4.97 lower at $376.39, $9.75 below last week at this time. Select was $2.81 higher today at $362.00 and just $1.14 lower on the week. As packers increase slaughter demand for fat cattle should increase helping to raise the price of cash trade this week. Many feedlots have been hedged in the October contract which has been offering exceptional basis levels compared to past years. With the better basis levels than normal and feedlots needing space for yearlings and calves coming in the next 60 days, the cash market may not see as big of a move higher as many are expecting.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures failed to hold any sort of direction today as the Corn market turned in a volatile trading session. Feeder Cattle futures opened the day higher but quickly turned lower. There were three different times throughout the session that Feeder Cattle traded from significant losses back to positive territory and then traded back lower and even put in new lows for the day. Continued weakness in the cash market has created overhead resistance for all contracts but especially the nearby futures. Today, The CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $0.67 lower at $332.80. The index has lost $8.20 during the week and is now over $32 below the same time last year. The futures continue to try to work higher but with the increased Corn price that feedlots are facing along with lower Live Cattle futures the cash market has stalled out causing the futures to return lower. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers of 1,784 contracts, reducing their net long position to 5,714 contracts.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog Futures closed positive across the board with most contracts ending 1.000 – 1.250 higher on the day. This was the first positive weekly futures settlement since the week of July 20. Technical support of 80.000 October continues to hold, as does 70.000 December. Producers are not excited by the market but feel relieved that we have finally found some stability. The Lean Hog index lost $0.28 today, settling at $92.14, $1.58 lower than last Friday. The pork cutout was priced at $93.80 yesterday, $2.69 less than a week ago. The depreciating cutout price is driven by a lower belly and loin price. The Commitment of Traders Report showed that managed money added 3,269 shorts to their net position. They are now net short of 31,135 contracts. This is now the shortest managed money has been historically in the Lean Hog complex, going back as far as 2006 when the records began.

Corn: Corn futures traded to new contract highs today have broke through the resistance level that was set on May 13. Concerns about supply are causing investors to buy both Corn and soybeans along with wheat. Following the Pro Farmer and Pioneer crop tours, traders are now wondering whether the USDA’s yield estimates are too high, in turn reducing the U.S. carryout. The prospect of a developing El Niño, which could cause drought in South America, is further fueling production worries. Tensions are still escalating in the Black Sea area, with Russia threatening the United Kingdom if it continues to support Ukraine. Demand is staying strong with exports remaining steady and the EU turning to the U.S. for Corn, while Brazil’s exports are slowing down as it increases its ethanol production. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as massive buyers of 126,008 contracts, increasing their net long position to 376,513 contracts. The funds are currently carrying their largest long position on record and just 25,000 contracts short of their net long record.