9/1/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures spent all but a few minutes of the day in lower territory. There has been limited positive news to push the market higher while the government continues to keep beef and the cattle industry on their minds. Yesterday’s comments about the industry, specifically heifer retention, gave no clear path and limited details but also showed traders that the administration is trying to find new ways to keep beef prices down. Boxed beef was higher this morning but remains well below week-ago levels. Choice was quoted $2.20 higher at $378.02, while Select was $2.17 higher at $360.66. The Choice/Select spread is back down to $17.36 after posting a high for the year at over $26.00 a few weeks ago. Monday’s estimated slaughter was 104,000 head, which is 6,000 head larger than last week, with estimates for the week to be similar to the 542,000-head total from a week ago heading into a short week next week. Last week’s estimated slaughter was the second highest of the year but still behind year-ago levels. There has been light trade today in the North at 218 and 345 to both a regional and a major packer. This would be steady with last week’s trade. There has been no trade in the South, but the South traded at a premium to the North last week, and inventory numbers suggest the market will remain that way into the end of the year.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures opened the day fractionally higher but quickly moved to sharply lower levels and spent the remainder of the day lower. Continued pressure from the Corn market has kept the Feeder Cattle complex from moving higher and has pushed the Feeder Cattle Index below $330.00 and to the lowest levels since the end of November. Today, the index was quoted at $329.14, down $0.17 on the day. Cost of gains have increased substantially in the past three weeks as Corn has added nearly a dollar a bushel since the August WASDE Report. The higher cost of gains, along with decreased Live Cattle prices, has forced feedlots to pay less for all classes of Feeder Cattle. More supply of cattle to the U.S. through the Mexican border has also softened the cash Feeder Cattle market in the Southern states. Going forward, the cash market will dictate where the futures market goes, as the complex has priced in lower prices into the end of the year. If anything changes with feed costs or Live Cattle prices to make cash Feeder Cattle work higher, the futures will be forced to play catch-up to move up to the cash markets.

Hogs: Lean Hog futures had a great start to the week, with the October contract ending up $1.775 and closing at $83.675. Tuesday brought little to no change, with October closing the day down $0.025. Since Friday’s open, the October contract has now broken and closed above the 10-, 20-, and 50-day MAs. This is a bullish indicator and a positive sign of a rebound in the Lean Hog futures market. The next upside target would be the 50% retracement at $84.60 October. The Lean Hog Index continues to trail lower, settling at 90.86, down $0.66 from the previous day. It is now down $7.56 off the recent high set a month ago. The cutout should continue to find pressure seasonally, but the bellies continue to hold stable for the moment. This is a small gleam of light in a seemingly depressing product market. The current futures rally will be a critical point to watch as we find out if this is part of short-term profit-taking or if managed money has pushed the market enough and is ready to unwind its record short position.

Corn: Corn futures traded to new contract highs today after trading lower for most of the overnight session. The grain complex as a whole has been supported by worries of production issues, good demand for grain in the U.S., and production and logistical issues in other countries. The Wheat complex traded sharply lower on Monday but found support on Tuesday and helped push the Corn complex to the highest levels since July 2023. Managed money continues to be buyers of the grains as a whole, but especially Corn. As of last Tuesday, managed money held its largest long position in history and was just 25,000 contracts shy of its record net-long position. Over the past week, the funds have most likely set a new record net-long position. All eyes are now focused on the WASDE Report at the end of next week to see if the USDA will lower U.S. Corn production for 2026 and, in turn, what that does to carryout. The market is not necessarily rationing demand at these prices but is pricing in production issues in other countries, along with export issues in the Black Sea, which will create more demand for the U.S. at a time when our carryout and stocks-to-use are at very tight levels.