9/4/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures opened steady to higher Friday morning following the notable $3–$5 higher trade seen the previous day. The session continued to follow through to the upside throughout the morning before pulling back and closing $0.70 to $1.40 lower heading into the holiday weekend. The recent move in the cattle complex is largely attributable to the break in the corn market, driven by peace talks surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Technically, the charts have broken through key short-term indicators, including the 9- and 10-day moving averages, and successfully held these levels for two trading periods. However, futures remain below longer-term moving averages. Cash trade remained steady with the prior week, with the North trading at $218 live and $345 dressed, with the majority of cattle trading early to mid-week. The South held off until later in the week and traded at $222–$223.Boxed beef prices continue to hold seasonally strong levels, with Friday morning Choice beef at $375.03, down $1.87, and Select at $354.23, up $3.51. Fed cattle basis continues to remain consistent with the elevated levels seen over the last few years, notably above the 10-year average. Friday’s slaughter estimate is 105,000 head, bringing the weekly estimate to 535,000–545,000 head. Increased slaughter levels are attributed to improved packer margins.Headlines and market noise continue to influence agricultural markets and are arguably intensified in the period leading up to the midterm elections. Fundamentally, eyes are on the boxes as we head into Labor Day weekend. Maintaining strong boxed beef prices will be key to supporting packer margins and continuing to stabilize cash in the near term.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures opened the day higher, with many contracts setting daily highs at least $1.00 higher, but that was short-lived as the market ended lower on the day, with October giving back $0.95 of Thursday’s gain. On Thursday, Feeder Cattle futures gained $6.00–$7.00 across most contracts.Corn started the day down $0.15, and it made sense for futures to move higher on the open. As the day went on, corn continued to fight back toward even, ending the day only $0.02 lower. Feeder Cattle did not flinch with this move in corn and instead continued higher. This is a positive sign for the industry in the short term, as there was no major news driving the market higher.Traders will watch closely to see if futures hold the 10-day MA and/or if we can break through the topside of the 20-day MA. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was quoted $0.53 higher at $328.80. The slipping index is a mix of pressure from the southern border on auction barns in the South, coupled with a lower volume of index cattle in the North.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures found some resistance in the market to end the week after a few strong positive moves to start the week. October futures ended the day $1.15 lower, settling at $82.30. The market has given up about 50% of the rally seen over the last week, but on a positive note, October futures did close above the 10-day MA at $82.20.Traders are now searching for a trend change marked by higher lows and higher highs as the market tries to step out of the hole it dug. The Lean Hog Index ended the week $0.23 higher, settling at $91.08. The index seems to have found near-term support around $90.00.The Pork Cutout lost $4.50 on Thursday’s report, bringing the cutout to $91.12. This is the lowest cutout print since January of this year. Today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money has reduced its record short position to 28,323 contracts net short, a change of 2,812 contracts.

Corn: Corn futures posted their third straight day lower, $0.12 off the contract highs set on Wednesday. After fighting back from $0.16 lower during Thursday’s trade to end only $0.02 down, the market has remained in its bullish trend.Despite this, markets appear overbought, and there is skepticism about the prospects for a geopolitical peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The Mississippi River’s declining water levels threaten grain transportation and freight rates as harvest pressure builds. Retail diesel prices have reached record highs ahead of harvest, and traders are adjusting positions before the long weekend.On the bullish side, private analysts are lowering yield expectations below USDA estimates. Super El Niño conditions, the strongest in 70 years, may affect South American production. Meanwhile, strong demand continues, with China actively purchasing soybeans and domestic stocks remaining tight.“Feed the Bull” has been a term used many times during the last week of trading, as the market will need to continue to find bullish news to keep this corn market at these elevated prices.