Live Cattle: The August Live Cattle contract has now finished lower seven days in a row and at today’s low had moved $12.950/cwt off the highs set just two weeks ago. The lower cash market has prevented the futures from finding support along with the boxed beef market that has moved lower over the past week. This morning both choice and select were quoted higher but remain below week ago levels. Choice was $1.30 higher at $387.78 and select was up $4.49 to $370.36. Continued concerns about beef demand and the inability to move beef seem to be in the news all of the time but there have been limited sharp moves lower so far in 2026. Last week’s cash averages were lower in all regions with the state of Texas once again not reporting due to confidentiality. The bulk of the trade in the North took place at 255-256 but there was some trade on Thursday at 254, and the South traded at 255-256. The CFTC report that was released yesterday showed the managed money as sellers of 6,722 contracts decreasing their net long position to 119,303. Last week’s estimated slaughter was 458,000 head which is just over 16,000 head less than a year ago.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have also moved lower over the past two weeks with the deferred contracts losing more than the nearby August contract. The August contract finished slightly higher today while the fall months lost $1.025-2.150/cwt. The August contract is holding due to the high cash market that remains above the current futures price. These two will not need to converge until the end of August when the contract expires but will remain relatively close for the next 60 days. Currently, the CME Feeder Cattle index is quoted at $373.19 up $2.08 on the day, but still $8.67 below the record high set less than two weeks ago. Limited volume of cash Feeder Cattle are in the index right now due to last week’s holiday which limited sales. CFTC data shows the funds as small sellers of 163 contracts last week and their long position decrease to 15,064 contracts.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the day lower with the exception of the July contract that will expire next week and needs to remain in line with the Lean Hog index. Currently, the index is at $91.55 and has remained between $91 and $92 since June 19. The pork cutout has again found itself range bound in the mid $90 area but has been quoted higher three days in a row. Yesterday, the cutout was quoted at $96.25, up $0.19 on the day. Last week’s slaughter was estimated at 1,974,000 head during the holiday week which was over 135,000 head larger than the same week a year ago. In the five weeks since Memorial Day, pork production is up 10.9% compared to the same time period a year ago indicating that the weakness within the pork cutout is more to so with too much supply instead of demand issues. More supply of hogs than originally thought and increased weights have both increased pork production so far in 2026. CFTC data was released yesterday due to the holiday and showed the managed money as sellers of 1,807 contracts increasing their net short position to 27,367 contracts, just 3,743 contracts away from their all-time record short position.
Corn: Corn futures started the week sharply higher and added to those gains today. Forecasts show longer term heat setting into the U.S. and with the funds being short the Corn complex, they began to buy out of those shorts and even add new longs. Yesterday’s open interest showed a decrease in contracts so there was limited new buying but looked more like the managed money bailing on their short positions. The new crop December contract has added 22 3/4 cents so far this week and is nearing technical resistance at the 200-day MA just three cents above the current price. The change in the forecast definitely helped the grain complex but soybeans were nearly 50 cents higher yesterday and overnight is was confirmed that China has purchased at least five cargoes of U.S. soybeans for fall delivery and that the leader of China would be visiting the U.S. in September. This held more bearing to the market and the soybean market helped raise the grain complex as a whole. The chart picture exiting last week also looked much better as both the Corn and Soybean charts finished the day above the 20-day MA. Moving forward, traders will look for any changing news coming from the U.S. and China as well as any changes in the weather forecast.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Sept
443.75
5.50
CHI Wheat
Sept
618.50
4.50
KC Wheat
Sept
652.75
3.00
Soybeans
August
1193.75
9.75
Soy Oil
August
68.59
0.83
Soy Meal
August
314.50
3.30
Live Cattle
August
238.425
0.675
Feeder Cattle
August
360.650
0.150
Lean Hogs
July
93.450
0.100
Crude Oil
August
72.18
3.63
Ch Cutout
387.78
1.30
Sel Cutout
370.36
4.49
Feeder Index
373.19
2.08
Pork Cutout
96.25
0.19
Dollar Index
101.060
0.2070
DOW
52,892
163
National Corn Basis
28.38
0.01
National Bean Basis
46.73
0.45
Dates to Remember
July 10- WASDE Report
July 15- July Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
93.450
94.325
0.875
106.950
13.500
National Cash
95.47
93.44
2.03
110.21
14.74
Index
91.55
91.41
0.14
107.33
15.78
Cutout
96.25
98.66
2.41
113.49
17.24
IA/SMN Cash
95.93
97.35
1.42
110.59
14.66
IA/SMN Weights
286.90
286.10
0.80
284.10
2.80
Slaughter
1,974,000
2,361,000
387,000
1,838,396
135,604
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
255.50
240.02
South Cash
255.00
229.68
North Steer Basis
13.00
19.89
Choice Boxes
387.78
394.98
7.20
390.98
3.20
Select Boxes
370.36
375.35
4.99
377.53
7.17
Spread
17.42
19.63
2.21
13.45
3.97
Carcass Weights
891
890
1
869
22
Slaughter
458,000
537,000
79,000
474,553
16,553
FC Index
373.19
377.40
4.21
312.04
61.15
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
N/A
$229.27
KS
$255.00
$229.68
NE
$255.50
$240.02
IA/MN
$254.83
$238.88
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/30/2026
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
19,303
6,722
-164,321
7,038
317,156
1,342
Feeder Cattle
15,064
163
-8,715
0
64,885
609
Lean Hogs
-27,367
1,807
-46,415
5,693
297,848
1,652
Corn
-46,209
23,482
-301,811
16,417
1,714,599
5,923
Soybeans
31,200
5,479
-125,428
18,232
956,667
45,619
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle have finished lower seven days in a row. Support is at 237.050 and then 233.975. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 243.350 and then 243.750.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle was the only contract to finish higher today. Support is at the 100-day MA of 359.525 and then 356.625. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 363.575 followed by 367.750.
Lean Hogs Markets
August Lean Hogs tested the 20-day MA today. Support is at the 20-day MA of 96.650 followed by 95.425. Resistance is at 99.175 and then 100.000.
Corn Markets
September Corn has finished higher five days in a row. Resistance is at the 200-day MA of 453 1/4 and then 467 1/4. Support is at the 20-day MA of 424.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.
7/7/26 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: The August Live Cattle contract has now finished lower seven days in a row and at today’s low had moved $12.950/cwt off the highs set just two weeks ago. The lower cash market has prevented the futures from finding support along with the boxed beef market that has moved lower over the past week. This morning both choice and select were quoted higher but remain below week ago levels. Choice was $1.30 higher at $387.78 and select was up $4.49 to $370.36. Continued concerns about beef demand and the inability to move beef seem to be in the news all of the time but there have been limited sharp moves lower so far in 2026. Last week’s cash averages were lower in all regions with the state of Texas once again not reporting due to confidentiality. The bulk of the trade in the North took place at 255-256 but there was some trade on Thursday at 254, and the South traded at 255-256. The CFTC report that was released yesterday showed the managed money as sellers of 6,722 contracts decreasing their net long position to 119,303. Last week’s estimated slaughter was 458,000 head which is just over 16,000 head less than a year ago.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have also moved lower over the past two weeks with the deferred contracts losing more than the nearby August contract. The August contract finished slightly higher today while the fall months lost $1.025-2.150/cwt. The August contract is holding due to the high cash market that remains above the current futures price. These two will not need to converge until the end of August when the contract expires but will remain relatively close for the next 60 days. Currently, the CME Feeder Cattle index is quoted at $373.19 up $2.08 on the day, but still $8.67 below the record high set less than two weeks ago. Limited volume of cash Feeder Cattle are in the index right now due to last week’s holiday which limited sales. CFTC data shows the funds as small sellers of 163 contracts last week and their long position decrease to 15,064 contracts.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the day lower with the exception of the July contract that will expire next week and needs to remain in line with the Lean Hog index. Currently, the index is at $91.55 and has remained between $91 and $92 since June 19. The pork cutout has again found itself range bound in the mid $90 area but has been quoted higher three days in a row. Yesterday, the cutout was quoted at $96.25, up $0.19 on the day. Last week’s slaughter was estimated at 1,974,000 head during the holiday week which was over 135,000 head larger than the same week a year ago. In the five weeks since Memorial Day, pork production is up 10.9% compared to the same time period a year ago indicating that the weakness within the pork cutout is more to so with too much supply instead of demand issues. More supply of hogs than originally thought and increased weights have both increased pork production so far in 2026. CFTC data was released yesterday due to the holiday and showed the managed money as sellers of 1,807 contracts increasing their net short position to 27,367 contracts, just 3,743 contracts away from their all-time record short position.
Corn: Corn futures started the week sharply higher and added to those gains today. Forecasts show longer term heat setting into the U.S. and with the funds being short the Corn complex, they began to buy out of those shorts and even add new longs. Yesterday’s open interest showed a decrease in contracts so there was limited new buying but looked more like the managed money bailing on their short positions. The new crop December contract has added 22 3/4 cents so far this week and is nearing technical resistance at the 200-day MA just three cents above the current price. The change in the forecast definitely helped the grain complex but soybeans were nearly 50 cents higher yesterday and overnight is was confirmed that China has purchased at least five cargoes of U.S. soybeans for fall delivery and that the leader of China would be visiting the U.S. in September. This held more bearing to the market and the soybean market helped raise the grain complex as a whole. The chart picture exiting last week also looked much better as both the Corn and Soybean charts finished the day above the 20-day MA. Moving forward, traders will look for any changing news coming from the U.S. and China as well as any changes in the weather forecast.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
July 10- WASDE Report
July 15- July Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/30/2026
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle have finished lower seven days in a row. Support is at 237.050 and then 233.975. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 243.350 and then 243.750.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle was the only contract to finish higher today. Support is at the 100-day MA of 359.525 and then 356.625. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 363.575 followed by 367.750.
Lean Hogs Markets
August Lean Hogs tested the 20-day MA today. Support is at the 20-day MA of 96.650 followed by 95.425. Resistance is at 99.175 and then 100.000.
Corn Markets
September Corn has finished higher five days in a row. Resistance is at the 200-day MA of 453 1/4 and then 467 1/4. Support is at the 20-day MA of 424.