9/29/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures started the day sharply lower but held at technical support areas before reversing course and trading to large gains. Those gains faded late in the day and the complex finished mixed with little change. There has been limited positive news affecting the Live Cattle complex the last few weeks but the futures market has been supported. Last week’s kill total was just 484,000 head which is the smallest non-holiday weekly total in 2026 and in the past five years. ICE raids in the South prevented workers from showing up for their shifts which forced the packers to cancel cattle that were to be delivered. The South waited until late in the week again last week to trade cash cattle and ended up getting steady money of 226 on Friday afternoon. There have not been enough cattle traded in the South for over the last month to meet confidentiality requirements so all of the weekly reports still show no cash trade in the South. The North traded from 218 to 223 last week with the national weighted average at $221.97. The hope is for cash to be higher again this week but if the good basis vs. the October contract remains in the North, cash will likely trade at steady again this week. Feedlots continue to fight big cattle and now are faced with poor pen conditions. Boxed beef continues to work higher and saw good gains this morning. Choice was quoted $2.80 higher at $383.28 and select was up $4.18 to $362.41. The $390 area will offer slight resistance to the product market and the increase in price has more to do with the lack of kill last week instead of increased demand. Friday’s Cold Storage Report showed all beef up 5.2% compared to a year ago and 2.2% larger than a month ago.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded to the highest levels since the beginning of August yesterday before falling throughout the day and finished with large losses. The market opened higher today but quickly traded lower before reversing course and seeing large daily gains by the middle of the day. The futures finished well off of the highs for the day but still settled with sizable gains for the day. A softer Corn market has helped support the feeders throughout the first two days of the week as well as supported deferred Live Cattle futures. Feeder Cattle continue to flow across the Mexican border into the U.S., but the market is no longer fearing if and when that will happen, instead trading the fundamentals now that it is here. The CME Feeder Cattle index has traded sideways for the past week and is now at $337.77 which was down just $0.02 on the day. Feedlots continue to face buying cattle at negative margin compared to where the Live Cattle futures are trading. Limited numbers of Feeder Cattle and smaller than normal runs at sale barns are increasing demand due to limited supplies.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures ended the day $0.350 to $1.300 higher across the complex, gaining all of the early week’s losses. On Monday, December set a new contract low due to another week of limited positive news around the hog complex. The pork cutout continues its bearish trendline, led by a unsettled bellies market, which has seen a $10 range over the past two weeks. The Lean Hog index also set new nearby lows at $81.21, the lowest print since January, and less than $1.00 away from the yearly low. The managed money continued to add to their short position over the past couple of weeks. According to the CFTC report released Friday, the managed money now sits at a record breaking 35,548 contracts short. With cooler weather and fresh Corn on the horizon, weights should continue to increase causing even more downward pressure on the market. There is hope though, long-term cash support is usually found near the $80 level. Also, with the record short position built, who is left to sell this market? This could leave bullish news to cause short covering and profit taking in a dramatic fashion. 

Corn: December Corn opened the session at 525 1/2 and traded lower until finding support around 519, then ground slightly higher for the remainder of the day to close at 522. On Sunday, the U.S. and China announced a $30 billion tariff reduction agreement; however, the deal did not include a reduction in Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans. The trade reacted sharply Monday, with November soybeans falling 30 cents and December Corn losing 5 cents. Monday’s Crop Progress Report showed Corn 18% harvested, slightly ahead of last year’s 17% pace, while soybeans were 17% harvested compared to 18% a year ago. However, most in the western Corn Belt would likely say harvest is nowhere near ahead of last year’s pace. Much of the Corn Belt continues to experience notably wet conditions, with additional precipitation in the forecast. Many operations in the western Corn Belt have not yet been able to begin harvest, and yield-limiting issues appear to be more significant there, although national yield reports remain strong. Soybean basis remains exceptionally strong amid tight supplies, with some crush plants offering $1.00 over in certain areas. Ethanol plants and feed mills in the areas that cannot get harvest started are calling around with quick ship bids, reduced drying charges, and reduced trucking rates to try and gain inventory to get through until the combines can get moving.